Israeli Poll Shows Joint Arab List Winning 9 Seats, Arab Representation Could Reach 17

An Israeli public opinion poll released Wednesday indicates the Joint Arab List, comprising the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the National Democratic Assembly, and the Arab Movement for Change, would secure 9 seats in the Knesset. This contrasts with the United List, which is projected to win 5 seats, despite the addition of former Knesset member Yoav Segalovich. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's party, "Yishai," is predicted to lead with 22 seats, one more than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, which is expected to get 21 seats. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and current opposition leader Yair Lapid's alliance, "B'Yachad," is projected to win 12 seats.

Other projected seat allocations include "The Democrats" (Labor and Meretz alliance) with 11 seats, "Yisrael Beiteinu" with 8, "United Torah Judaism" with 8, "Otzma Yehudit" with 7, "Shas" with 7, the alliance of Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" and Moshe Feiglin's "Zeut" with 6, and "Amcha Israel" led by former officer Ofer Winter with 4 seats. The poll was conducted by Index in cooperation with Stat-Net, Midgam, and Ascaria, surveying 940 participants with a 3.4% margin of error.

According to Yusuf Mukaleda, director of the Stat-Net institute involved in the poll's Arab sector, Arab representation could potentially reach 16 or 17 seats, with at least 10 for the Joint List. He explained that if Arab voter turnout increases to 72% and certain alliances shift, the Joint List could gain a seat, while the United List might lose one, potentially reducing Netanyahu's bloc's seats. Mukaleda also noted that "United Torah Judaism" and "Religious Zionism" might suffer losses in such scenarios due to vote surplus agreements.

Further scenarios explored by Mukaleda suggest that if "Amcha Israel" falls below the electoral threshold, Netanyahu's bloc could lose significant support, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc, excluding Arab parties, could gain. In this case, the Joint List might secure 11 seats. Mukaleda also analyzed potential alliances, including one between Eisenkot and Bennett, which would yield 31 seats for their joint list, and another between Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, which would result in 11 seats for their alliance. In these alliance scenarios, Arab representation remains around 14 seats, with Netanyahu's bloc holding a slight majority.

Regarding suitability for the prime minister role, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by a significant margin, with 47% of respondents favoring him compared to 37% for Netanyahu. When asked about concerns for candidates' physical safety before elections, 39% expressed worry, while 46% did not, and 15% were unsure.