October Council Warns of Ongoing Security Failures and Hamas Threat Ahead of 2026

The "October Council" released a detailed report on Monday titled "Strategic Warning: 2026 Failure," compiling extensive information on Israel's security preparedness nearly three years after the October 7 attacks. The report analyzes thousands of open-source materials, including official military and security documents, investigations, parliamentary and judicial records, media reports, and confidential interviews with current and former security personnel, reservists, and others who requested anonymity due to fear of repercussions.

The council identified seven critical warning signs, highlighting that the Israeli security concept has not disappeared but evolved. Prior to October 7, Israel relied heavily on deterrence and limited force against Hamas, assuming it was contained. However, Hamas remains armed and continues to recruit, produce weapons, and rebuild governance structures. The report notes that Hamas systematically tests Israel's defensive lines, probing responses and exploiting delays in operational approvals.

Observers and soldiers describe ongoing breaches of the "yellow line" near the Gaza border, with Hamas operatives conducting reconnaissance and planting explosives while Israeli forces face restrictions on responding. The report also reveals a significant erosion of manpower and morale within the Israel Defense Forces, with reservists reporting shortages and difficulties filling roles. The fear of speaking out about security concerns persists among soldiers, commanders, and officials, creating a "culture of silence" that the council warns constitutes a security failure in itself.

No single independent body has yet conducted a comprehensive investigation into the entire chain of events and decision-making processes, from political leadership to intelligence and military preparedness. The report includes testimonies accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of ignoring multiple warnings before the 2023 attacks and criticizes the focus on the Iranian threat at the expense of Hamas in Gaza. It calls for a state commission of inquiry to examine all aspects of the failures and ensure transparency.

The council stresses that if Hamas is allowed time, resources, and freedom to reorganize, Israel risks repeating the same flawed security assumptions that led to the October 7 disaster. Local leaders and security officials express frustration over enforced silence and the prioritization of public calm over confronting harsh realities. The report concludes with a stark question about whether Israel can trust its political and military leadership to provide an accurate picture of the security situation, underscoring the urgent need for an independent investigation.