October Council Warns of New Security Failures as Hamas Remains Armed and Active

The October Council released its "Strategic Warning: Failure 2026" report on August 24, highlighting ongoing security risks to Israel nearly three years after the October 7 massacre. Based on thousands of publications and dozens of in-depth interviews with security personnel and fighters, the report asserts that the security concept has not disappeared but evolved. It warns that Hamas remains armed, continues recruiting, rebuilding infrastructure, and strengthening governance mechanisms in Gaza.

The report details seven major warning signs, including observations from Gaza-based lookouts who report Hamas operatives testing the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) responses along the border. Fighters describe a systematic probing of military boundaries while operational approvals are delayed or denied. Reut Recht Edri, mother of the late Ido and a council representative, stressed the danger of ignoring early signs, recalling that warnings were present before the 2023 attack but dismissed by the system.

A central finding concerns a "fear barrier" that prevents officers and security personnel from reporting identified gaps and threats due to career or political repercussions. Recht Edri called this barrier more dangerous than any physical fence, warning that if those who know the enemy are afraid to speak, the warning system becomes blind. A former senior security official cited in the report claimed Prime Minister Netanyahu received over ten warnings before the war but did not act, dismissing them as exaggerations. Questions remain about the security cabinet's response, especially regarding warnings focused on the Jewish High Holidays.

Sharon Eshel, mother of the fallen lookout Roni Eshel, addressed commanders in the field, urging them not to ignore warnings from lookouts, soldiers, and officers. She warned that any future massacre would occur under their watch if these alerts are disregarded. The report underscores the urgent need for Israel to acknowledge and act on these persistent security threats to prevent further tragedies.