Hamas Threatens New Attacks, Israel Assesses Capabilities Remain

Senior Hamas officials in Gaza have issued an unusual threat, stating the organization is prepared to launch another attack against Israel similar to the October 7th massacre, and could act anywhere, including within Israel, the West Bank, or abroad. Despite Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's post-October 7th vow to destroy Hamas, Israeli officials acknowledge that while the organization has been severely damaged, it retains the capability to launch attacks, albeit not on the same scale as the previous massacre. These potential attacks could include targeting outposts, abducting soldiers, and infiltrating communities. Recent assessments presented to the Israeli Security Cabinet indicate increased Hamas preparations for renewed fighting, with the group reportedly stockpiling forces and weapons, including moving them to civilian areas. This buildup is believed to be based on the assumption that Israel's hands will be tied regarding significant operations until the US and Israeli elections in October and November. Hamas is estimated to have around 30,000 active members.

Israeli officials note a significant shift in Hamas's behavior. Activists are now more visible, operating in uniform and asserting control over Gaza's residents, a departure from their previous covert operations. Weapons are being moved from underground tunnels to civilian structures like hospitals and schools. The group's rhetoric has also changed from de-escalation to a more militant stance, exemplified by the recent direct threat. Furthermore, Hamas has reportedly begun distributing weapons to civilians, possibly as a strategy to preserve arms and personnel. Israel believes Hamas perceives a low chance of a successful ceasefire agreement and is thus preparing for an offensive, potentially initiating an attack if it anticipates Israel preparing for action.

Israeli military and intelligence assessments suggest that a key condition for progress, the disarmament of Hamas, is not being met, with the organization violating understandings daily. While there is no specific timeline for renewed fighting, intelligence indicates Hamas has no intention of voluntarily relinquishing its weapons. The military's position is that the IDF will eventually need to re-enter Gaza to disarm the organization, a task that cannot be accomplished by international actors. Israel also anticipates Hamas attempting to deceive during any disarmament process, handing over damaged or known weapons while concealing its true arsenal and personnel. Hamas's military wing is estimated to have tens of thousands of operatives, with an additional 50,000 serving in its government ministries. While recruitment remains feasible due to indoctrination and competitive salaries, some ministers believe Hamas fighters are less skilled and their weaponry of lower quality than before October 7th, with most training being theoretical due to the risk of Israeli strikes.

Hamas's command and control capabilities have been significantly degraded, with frequent replacements in key leadership roles leading to less experienced personnel. While hundreds of rockets remain in Gaza, their long-range capability is limited, and their impact on Israel is considered minimal, though not all launch sites are known to Israel. Significant weapon stockpiles, manufacturing facilities, and tunnels remain in areas of Gaza where the IDF has not operated, such as the humanitarian zone in Al-Mawasi and central camps, making strikes difficult due to civilian presence. Hamas is also believed to have repaired many tunnel systems in areas outside IDF control. While Hamas has capabilities in the West Bank, strong Israeli and Palestinian Authority security cooperation limits its actions there, though terror attempts cannot be ruled out. Threats to operate abroad stem from increased difficulty operating within Gaza and the lack of hostages, leading to talk of abducting soldiers. Israel maintains that its operational freedom would be extensive in the event of attacks within Israel or abroad. Hamas's financial situation has improved through external transfers and control over humanitarian aid, with Iran and Turkey cited as primary funders, often utilizing digital currencies converted to cash for salaries.