October Council Warns of New Israeli Security Failures Amid Hamas Threat

The October Council released its "Strategic Warning: Failure 2026" report on August 24, highlighting ongoing Israeli security risks nearly three years after the October 7 massacre. Based on thousands of publications and dozens of in-depth interviews with security personnel and fighters, the report asserts that the Israeli security concept has not disappeared but evolved. It warns that Hamas remains armed, continues recruiting, rebuilding infrastructure, and strengthening governance mechanisms along the Gaza border.

The report details seven major warning signs, including observations from Israeli lookouts who report Hamas operatives testing the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) responses at the border. Fighters describe Hamas as systematically probing Israel’s military limits while operational approvals are delayed or denied. Reut Recht Edri, mother of a victim from the Nova event and council representative, stressed the danger of ignoring early signs, saying, "We are afraid of what happens when we are not afraid in time."

A key finding addresses a "fear barrier" within the security establishment, where officers and soldiers hesitate to report risks due to career or political repercussions. Recht Edri called this barrier "more dangerous than any fence," warning that if those who know the enemy are afraid to speak, the warning system becomes blind. A former senior security official cited in the report claimed Prime Minister Netanyahu received over ten warnings before the war but dismissed them as exaggerations, particularly those related to the Jewish High Holidays.

Sharon Eshel, mother of fallen lookout Roni Eshel, directly appealed to frontline commanders, including Southern Brigade Commander Colonel Yoav Spector, Northern Brigade Commander Colonel Omri Mashiach, and Gaza Division Commander Brigadier General Liron Batito. She urged them not to ignore warnings from lookouts, soldiers, and officers, reminding them that any future massacre would occur under their watch.