US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Risks Regional Arms Race Without Israel Normalization

A potential 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, reportedly approved by former President Donald Trump, could allow Riyadh to develop uranium enrichment capabilities. This deal, still pending official announcement and congressional review, marks a significant strategic gain for Saudi Arabia but poses a serious diplomatic setback for Israel. Unlike previous US efforts under President Biden to link Saudi nuclear progress with normalization of relations with Israel, this agreement appears to decouple the two, granting Saudi Arabia nuclear benefits without requiring diplomatic concessions toward Israel.

The agreement reportedly may not compel Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which enhances inspection powers to detect undeclared nuclear activities. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long sought a stronger security umbrella, advanced weaponry, and a civilian nuclear program that does not preclude uranium enrichment. The US aims to secure economic and industrial interests, prevent Russian or Chinese entry into Saudi nuclear markets, and strengthen ties with Riyadh, while Israel faces increased security risks without diplomatic gains.

The core concern lies in uranium enrichment and plutonium separation technologies, which, while civilian in nature, can serve as a foundation for nuclear weapons development if political decisions shift. Israel had hoped Saudi Arabia would follow the UAE model, which forgoes enrichment and reprocessing, relying instead on external fuel supplies. If Saudi Arabia gains practical or formal enrichment rights, other regional states like the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran may push for similar capabilities, potentially accelerating a regional nuclear arms race.

This development complicates efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, as it undermines the rationale for demanding Iran abandon enrichment while allowing Saudi Arabia to pursue it. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously indicated Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquires them. Israel must therefore press the US government and Congress to explicitly prohibit enrichment and reprocessing in Saudi Arabia, enforce the Additional Protocol, and establish automatic suspension mechanisms for violations.

Moreover, Israel should leverage the deal to negotiate a broader regional arrangement centered on normalization with Saudi Arabia, possibly involving phased steps in the Palestinian arena to facilitate progress without immediate final agreements. Active Israeli engagement is crucial to ensure the security costs of the nuclear deal yield strategic benefits, rather than leaving Israel sidelined as the agreement advances.