US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Raises Israeli Security Concerns Over Potential Military Use

The recent US-Saudi agreement enabling Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program has caught Israel by surprise and sparked significant concern. Although Saudi Arabia is a close US ally and has ties with former President Trump, the deal's details remain unclear, particularly regarding nuclear reactor construction, oversight, and uranium enrichment. Doron Peskin, an economic analyst, noted the agreement is a legal framework pending US Congress approval within 90 days, but Trump's veto power makes its ratification likely.

A key unresolved issue is the extent of Saudi uranium enrichment, with conflicting reports about whether Saudi Arabia has relinquished this right. Trump stated there would be no enrichment and linked the deal to normalization with Israel, but the agreement has not been published, leaving these claims unverified. Peskin warned that after Trump's presidency, the absence of explicit treaty clauses could lead to future uncertainties.

Saudi Arabia aims to diversify its energy sources beyond oil and gas, planning two nuclear reactors as part of its long-term Vision 2030 economic strategy. Currently, the kingdom generates about 60% of its energy from natural gas, 38% from oil, and 2% from renewables. The US interest includes prioritizing American companies in Saudi Arabia's emerging nuclear sector, countering previous Saudi flirtations with Russia and China.

Despite the civilian framing, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries worry about potential military applications, given the infrastructure and knowledge gained could facilitate a transition to nuclear weapons. This concern is heightened by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's past statements suggesting Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquires them. The deal's linkage to Israeli normalization is complicated by Saudi Arabia's insistence on resolving the Palestinian issue first, a point Peskin believes Saudi Arabia struggles to reconcile.

The agreement's future depends on Congressional approval and the publication of its full terms. Until then, Israel remains cautious, recognizing the strategic risks of Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions and the broader regional implications.