Saudi-US Civil Nuclear Deal Raises Israeli Concerns Over Regional Security and Normalization Prospects

Saudi Arabia and the United States are set to sign a civil nuclear agreement that grants Riyadh significant technological and political gains, while raising concerns in Israel about the potential loss of leverage to advance normalization talks. Israeli officials and regional experts warn that the deal, expected to be finalized on July 26, 2022, includes unusual provisions that could facilitate Saudi Arabia’s future development of nuclear weapons.

An Israeli source told N12 that the agreement signals a decline in Israel’s standing in Washington, as the Biden administration has decoupled the nuclear deal from normalization with Israel, unlike the Trump administration which linked the two. Dr. Michal Yaari of Ben-Gurion University emphasized that Saudi Arabia will now be able to pursue a civilian nuclear program without committing to normalization, reducing its motivation to engage in peace talks with Israel.

Professor Yossi Mann of Bar-Ilan University highlighted that the deal elevates Saudi Arabia’s regional status and economic potential, especially by enabling it to meet domestic energy needs through nuclear power, thus increasing its oil export capacity. However, Mann warned that Saudi Arabia’s ultimate goal may be to develop nuclear weapons if Iran advances its own nuclear program.

The agreement reportedly includes provisions allowing Saudi Arabia to limit international inspectors’ access to certain sites and potentially enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium, conditions that could ease a transition to military nuclear capabilities. This contrasts with the stricter terms imposed on the UAE’s 2009 nuclear deal with the US.

Experts caution that if Saudi Arabia pursues nuclear weapons, it could trigger a regional arms race involving countries like Egypt and Turkey, posing serious security risks for Israel. The deal also represents a major economic boost for Saudi Arabia, supporting its ambitions in artificial intelligence and energy independence.

The signing of the Saudi-US civil nuclear agreement marks a pivotal moment with broad geopolitical and economic implications, while casting uncertainty over the future of Israeli-Saudi relations and regional stability.