US Approves Saudi Civil Nuclear Program, Raising Strategic Concerns and Opportunities for Israel

The United States has approved a civil nuclear program for Saudi Arabia as part of a strategic agreement expected to foster economic and energy cooperation for at least 30 years. This development, reported on Wednesday evening, has triggered significant strategic concerns in Jerusalem alongside recognition of potential benefits.

Israeli officials have identified three main challenges posed by the agreement. First, allowing Saudi Arabia to develop a civil nuclear program could prompt other countries in the region to seek similar arrangements, potentially destabilizing the regional strategic balance. Second, the long-term economic ties between the US and Saudi Arabia, involving substantial financial flows, might lead Washington to prioritize economic interests over strategic considerations, thereby reducing Israel's influence on US policy toward Saudi Arabia. Third, the agreement currently lacks a parallel normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which Israeli leaders had hoped to see, especially after the October 7 massacre disrupted prior progress toward historic normalization talks.

Despite these concerns, Israeli officials also see a significant advantage in Saudi Arabia's pivot toward the US camp, moving away from alliances with China, Russia, and Iran. This shift decisively aligns Riyadh with the West, countering Tehran's ambitions to dominate the region. Israeli sources attribute this realignment to the new balance of power shaped by recent conflicts, noting that Saudi Arabia's closer ties with the US would not have occurred without the outcomes of the recent war.

The agreement marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with implications for regional alliances and Israel's strategic calculations. Israeli hopes remain that US President Donald Trump will condition the nuclear deal on progress toward normalization with Saudi Arabia, viewing any other outcome as a missed diplomatic opportunity.