Israel Faces Strategic Risks as US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Advances Without Normalization

Reports of a potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia have raised significant concerns in Israel. If confirmed, Israel could face a dual challenge: increased nuclear proliferation risks in the Middle East and the loss of a historic diplomatic achievement, namely normalization with Saudi Arabia. Historically, the US willingness to support Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions was tied to a broader regional deal where Riyadh would receive security guarantees and an advanced civilian nuclear program, while Israel would gain normalization with the key Arab state. However, this linkage appears to be weakening, with Washington possibly granting Saudi demands without progress on normalization, leaving Israel exposed to risks without strategic gains.

The core issue is not Saudi Arabia’s development of civilian nuclear energy, which many countries pursue peacefully, but whether Riyadh will be allowed uranium enrichment capabilities. Such a precedent could undermine the UAE’s model, which renounced enrichment, encourage other states to demand similar rights, and complicate US efforts to oppose enrichment in countries like Iran on principled grounds rather than political ones.

Israel is cautious about publicly confronting the Trump administration or Saudi leadership over this sensitive matter. Instead, it prefers discreet, intensive dialogue with Washington aimed at minimizing risks through strict oversight mechanisms, adoption of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s additional protocols, limits on enrichment and reprocessing, and guaranteed external fuel supplies. At the same time, Israel must acknowledge the political reality that the US may push the deal forward regardless.

In that scenario, Israel’s best option is to influence the deal’s terms and restore normalization to the center of the agreement. This could involve phased steps in the Palestinian arena combined with clear US support, potentially reviving a trilateral deal that serves Israeli interests alongside American and Saudi ones. Israel faces a choice between outright opposition, risking the deal’s conclusion without its consent, or shaping the agreement to reduce nuclear risks and regain diplomatic progress. The strategic imperative is to minimize dangers while ensuring Saudi Arabia does not gain everything without Israel securing any benefits. The article’s author is a senior researcher and head of the Gulf program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University, and former head of Iran and Gulf affairs at the National Security Council.