Saudi-US Civil Nuclear Deal Raises Israeli Concerns Over Regional Security and Normalization Prospects

Saudi Arabia and the United States are set to sign a civil nuclear agreement that grants Riyadh significant technological and political gains, while raising concerns in Israel about regional security and the future of normalization talks. The deal, expected to be finalized on July 26, 2022, allows Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes but includes provisions that could facilitate a future military nuclear program.

Israeli officials and experts warn that the agreement diminishes Saudi Arabia's incentive to pursue a peace deal with Israel, as the Biden administration has decoupled nuclear cooperation from normalization efforts, a linkage that former President Donald Trump had maintained. Dr. Michal Yaari from Ben-Gurion University highlighted that Saudi Arabia can now advance its nuclear program without committing to normalization, which Israel views as a problematic precedent.

Professor Yossi Mann of Bar-Ilan University emphasized that the deal elevates Saudi Arabia's regional stature, restoring influence lost during the Iran conflict. He cautioned that Saudi Arabia intends to develop nuclear weapons eventually if no significant resolution is reached regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions. The agreement reportedly includes clauses allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium, with limited international inspection access, raising fears of potential nuclear weapons development.

Beyond security implications, the civil nuclear program is expected to boost Saudi Arabia's economy by providing energy for domestic use, freeing more oil and gas for export, and supporting its ambitions in artificial intelligence, which requires substantial energy. However, the deal could trigger a regional arms race, with countries like Egypt and Turkey possibly seeking similar nuclear capabilities if Saudi Arabia moves toward military nuclear development.

The agreement marks a shift in U.S.-Saudi relations and regional dynamics, with Israel perceiving a loss of leverage in Washington and increased risks to its security environment. The coming months will reveal how this deal influences Middle East geopolitics and the prospects for Israeli-Saudi normalization.