US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Risks Regional Arms Race Without Israel Normalization

A potential 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, reportedly approved by former President Donald Trump, could allow Riyadh to develop uranium enrichment capabilities on its soil. This deal, still pending official announcement and congressional review, marks a strategic win for Saudi Arabia but a significant diplomatic setback for Israel. Unlike previous US efforts under President Biden, which linked Saudi nuclear advancement to normalization with Israel, this agreement appears to decouple those issues, granting Saudi Arabia nuclear benefits without requiring diplomatic ties with Israel.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long sought stronger security guarantees, advanced weaponry, and a civilian nuclear program with enrichment potential. The Trump administration’s deal fulfills these demands, aiming to block Russian and Chinese influence in Saudi nuclear development and strengthen US-Saudi relations. However, the agreement reportedly may not compel Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which enhances inspection powers to detect undeclared nuclear activities.

The core concern lies in the nuclear fuel cycle, particularly uranium enrichment and plutonium separation technologies, which could serve as a foundation for future nuclear weapons development if Riyadh chooses. Israel had hoped Saudi Arabia would follow the United Arab Emirates’ model, which forgoes enrichment and reprocessing, relying instead on external fuel supplies. Granting Saudi Arabia enrichment rights could prompt other regional states like the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran to pursue or justify their own nuclear programs, potentially accelerating a Middle Eastern arms race.

This development complicates efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as it undermines the US position that Iran alone must abandon enrichment. Saudi statements have indicated that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Riyadh might seek them as well. Israel faces increased proliferation risks and the loss of leverage that normalization might have provided. Experts urge Israel to lobby the US government and Congress to impose strict restrictions on Saudi enrichment and reprocessing, adopt rigorous inspection protocols, and establish automatic suspension mechanisms for violations.

Israel is also encouraged to pursue creative diplomatic strategies to leverage the deal toward regional normalization, including incremental steps in the Palestinian arena. Active Israeli involvement could help ensure that the security costs of the Saudi nuclear deal yield strategic benefits, rather than leaving Israel sidelined as the agreement progresses.