Israel Prepares for Possible Involvement as US Signals Escalation Against Iran

Israeli officials assess that US President Donald Trump is likely to escalate attacks against Iran, increasing the chances of renewed conflict and potential Israeli involvement. Trump recently threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear site at Fordow, known as "Mount Al-Mukesh," following reports that Iran transferred thousands of centrifuges and possibly uranium there. The US has also increased military deployments in the region, including aerial refueling planes and additional forces, signaling readiness for possible confrontations.

Despite these developments, Israel currently prefers to avoid direct involvement in the limited US-Iran conflict. Israeli Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that Israel has no interest in joining the limited confrontation, considering the current situation optimal. However, Israeli officials warn that any Iranian attack on Israel would trigger a full-scale Israeli military response, with Israel prepared to use its extensive target bank and operational freedom to strike Iranian capabilities and proxies.

A senior Israeli official emphasized that the strategic goal remains weakening the Iranian regime through economic and military pressure, aiming for its eventual collapse. The official noted that Trump is cautious about escalating the conflict due to potential impacts on oil prices and prefers to contain the confrontation. Meanwhile, regional dynamics are shifting, with Gulf states increasingly aligning with Israel against the Iranian threat, potentially opening avenues for future diplomatic progress.

On the northern front, Israel continues to separate Iranian forces from Hezbollah, maintaining legitimacy for operations in Lebanon while warning that renewed fighting with Iran could draw Hezbollah into the conflict. Israel is also stabilizing security zones in Lebanon and Gaza.

Separately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit to the US remains uncertain, with no confirmed meeting date with Trump. Reports of opposition from Vice President Mike Pence’s aides to Netanyahu’s meeting were denied by the White House as baseless. Netanyahu’s team returned from Washington after preparations, aiming to meet Trump beyond attending Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral on June 28.