Israel Sees Rising Risk of Renewed Military Conflict with Iran Amid US Escalation

Israeli security and political officials increasingly assess that US President Donald Trump may soon intensify military actions against Iran. This assessment follows Trump's strong rhetoric, the buildup of American forces in the region, and the arrival of additional refueling aircraft and troops, all raising the possibility of renewed escalation in the conflict. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts led by Qatar and Oman aim to establish a ten-day ceasefire to create a window for renewed negotiations between the parties.

During a White House meeting with Lebanese President Michel Aoun, Trump issued a direct threat to Iran, warning of attacks on the newly discussed nuclear site at Mount Makuh. He emphasized that any attempt by Iran to rebuild nuclear facilities would be met with severe strikes. Israeli officials believe that the decision to expand military operations currently rests solely with Trump, who is also reinforcing US military presence in the area as preparation for potential scenarios.

A senior Israeli source clarified that Israel does not currently seek direct confrontation but will respond forcefully to any Iranian attack. The source stated, "If Iran attacks us, we will go all in and strike them. We do not do things halfway." Israel reportedly holds a substantial list of targets related to Iran’s military capabilities and its proxies in the region. Tehran is understood to be aware of the consequences of Israeli involvement and thus reluctant to provoke direct conflict.

Despite the tensions, Trump is believed to prefer limiting the conflict to avoid a broader regional war and to prevent shocks to the global energy market that could cause sharp oil price increases. Israel’s strategic goal remains to weaken the Iranian regime by undermining its stability through economic pressure, currency collapse, and sustained strain, though a military round alone is unlikely to topple it.

The Israeli official concluded that the current situation serves Israel’s interests, noting it is preferable that the confrontation is seen as between Trump and Iran rather than Israel pushing the US into action. Additionally, Gulf states are increasingly aligning with Israel due to the shared threat from Iran, potentially paving the way for expanded political and security cooperation in the future.