Suspicious Bets on Netanyahu's Victory Yield Thousands on Prediction Platform

The prediction platform Polymarket is investigating unusual trading activity that occurred shortly before Israeli election polls closed, potentially allowing some users to profit significantly from bets on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future. Hundreds of new accounts were reportedly used to place trades anticipating a favorable outcome for Netanyahu and his Likud party, with some bets made just minutes before voting concluded.

Polymarket confirmed it is examining the suspicious transactions and has shared relevant information with law enforcement. The timing of these bets drew particular attention, as most pre-election forecasts favored Netanyahu's political rivals. No evidence of insider trading has been presented thus far.

One notable case involved a digital wallet created just six minutes before a $14,000 bet was placed 12 minutes before polls closed. This user reportedly closed their position after election results became clear, realizing a profit of $42,000. It remains unclear if this account is part of the official investigation.

Analytical company Polysights also flagged a surge in activity from new digital wallets on election day. The total profit for several new accounts after market predictions shifted reportedly exceeded $100,000. Some traders managed to sell their positions before the official vote count was finalized, capitalizing on the rapid change in market expectations.

The scale of these operations was significant, with total trading volume on Polymarket's main election market exceeding $70 million. Over $23 million of this was related to contracts concerning Netanyahu's political future. Prior to the vote, market participants had assigned a 56% probability to Gadi Eisenkot becoming prime minister, compared to 27.5% for Netanyahu. Similar expectations were observed on the competing platform Kalshi.

Predictions for the largest party in the Knesset also showed a significant divergence, with Eisenkot's "Yashar!" list given a 73.5% chance of winning first place, while Likud's chances were estimated at only 26%. Market participants generally expected Likud to secure between 20 and 24 seats. However, early exit poll results indicated a stronger performance for Likud, which immediately impacted the value of political contracts, raising Netanyahu's probability of remaining in power to 48% and lowering Eisenkot's to 33.5%. Subsequently, the probability of Likud becoming the largest party reached 99%.