Hundreds of Suspicious Bets on Netanyahu's Victory Investigated

The digital betting platform Polymarket has launched an investigation into hundreds of new accounts that placed bets on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's victory and the Likud party becoming the largest in the Knesset. These bets were made on Tuesday, shortly before polling stations closed, raising suspicions of unusual activity on a significant scale.

A company spokesperson confirmed to The New York Times that an inquiry is underway following dozens of suspicious bets placed through new accounts. Polymarket has also reported the activity to law enforcement authorities. While no proof of insider trading has been presented, the timing and volume of these transactions have prompted questions about their origin.

Initial signs of this unusual activity were detected on election day by data analysis firm Polysights, which flagged a substantial flow of "yes" purchases via new digital wallets. The firm noted extraordinary purchase volumes within a 24-hour period, suggesting the activity warranted a thorough investigation.

One reported case highlights the potential profits: a digital wallet opened a Polymarket account just six minutes before placing a $14,000 bet on Netanyahu's success. The transaction occurred 12 minutes before polls closed. By Wednesday, after exit polls indicated a stronger showing for Netanyahu, this user reportedly cashed out their position for a $42,000 profit. It remains unclear if this account was part of the company's official investigation.

Reports suggest that the hundreds of new accounts involved in this unusual activity collectively profited over $100,000 following the release of exit polls. Some users even sold their bets to other traders before vote counting concluded on Thursday. This activity occurred against the backdrop of an exceptionally large betting market, with Polymarket's central election market exceeding $70 million in trades before election day, making it one of the largest political betting markets on the platform outside the United States. Over $23 million of this was related to contracts concerning Netanyahu continuing as Prime Minister.

Prior to the election, Polymarket's market predicted Gadi Eisenkot had a 56% chance of becoming Prime Minister, compared to Netanyahu's 27.5%. The Likud party was given only a 26% chance of being the largest party, while Eisenkot's Yesh Atid list had a 73.5% chance. Exit polls dramatically shifted this outlook, with Netanyahu's chances rising to 48% and Likud's to 99% of becoming the largest party. This incident follows similar concerns about insider trading and market manipulation in forecasting markets, including a case in Israel in February where two individuals were accused of using classified military information for bets on Polymarket.