Hundreds of Thousands of "Double Envelopes" Could Sway Israeli Election Results

Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba

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Hundreds of thousands of "double envelope" ballots, representing 12-15 Knesset mandates, could significantly alter Israel's election results by shifting seat allocations and the balance of political blocs. Historically, these votes have favored Zionist parties, but past trends may not hold. Strategic advisor Roni Hersh suggests major Zionist parties could benefit, while the party of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikah might see a boost, potentially impacting their chances of crossing the electoral threshold. The final outcome depends on the complete vote count and its distribution.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

Hundreds of thousands of "double envelope" ballots could sway Israeli election results by 12-15 Knesset seats.
Past elections show double envelope votes often favor Zionist parties over Haredi and Arab parties.
The 2022 election saw United Torah Judaism lose a mandate and Yisrael Beiteinu gain one after these votes were counted.
Strategic advisor Roni Hersh believes major Zionist parties may receive a significant portion of these votes.
Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikah's party, below the threshold, might benefit from soldier and reservist voters.
The final seat distribution depends on the complete count and how these votes affect parties near the electoral threshold.

Hundreds of Thousands of "Double Envelopes" Could Sway Israeli Election Results — Editorial illustration generated by baba News, not a photograph of the event.

Hundreds of thousands of "double envelope" ballots, estimated between 600,000 and 650,000, could significantly alter the distribution of Knesset seats and the balance of power between political blocs in the current Israeli election. These ballots, cast by soldiers, reservists, police, prison guards, diplomats, and other eligible voters unable to vote at their registered polling stations, are equivalent to approximately 12-15 Knesset mandates. While not adding new mandates, their inclusion in the final count can shift seat allocations, particularly impacting parties near the electoral threshold.

Historically, these ballots have shown a tendency to favor Zionist parties over Arab and Haredi parties. In previous elections, for instance, the Haredi and Arab parties received lower support from double envelope voters compared to their overall national support, while some Zionist parties saw higher percentages. However, past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes, and the composition of voters in this election, including evacuees eligible to vote in special polling stations, may influence results differently.

Significant shifts have occurred in past elections due to the counting of these ballots. In the 2022 elections, United Torah Judaism lost a mandate while Yisrael Beiteinu gained one after the double envelopes were counted. Meretz narrowly missed the electoral threshold after its vote share dropped below the 3.25% mark during the count. Temporary fluctuations also indicated potential gains for the Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit list at the expense of Likud, though these did not hold in the final results.

Strategic advisor Roni Hersh noted that while the sheer volume of votes is substantial, the key question is how they will be distributed, particularly between major parties like Likud and Yisrael. He suggested a significant portion might go to large Zionist parties, potentially impacting the bloc balance. Hersh also highlighted the potential for the party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikah, which is currently below the electoral threshold, to benefit from the double envelope votes due to the presence of soldiers and reservists among these voters.

Despite the potential boost, Hendel and Zehlikah's party faces a challenging path to cross the electoral threshold. Even a substantial number of additional votes may not be enough if the overall vote count increases significantly. If they do succeed, however, it could notably influence the final seat distribution and the formation of the next government. The final outcome remains uncertain, depending on the final vote count, the parties benefiting, and shifts around the electoral threshold.