Double Envelopes Could Shift Israeli Election Results by Up to 15 Knesset Seats

By Вести-Ynet

Translated & summarized from Vesty by baba

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Israel's Central Elections Committee expects a record 600,000-650,000 "double envelope" ballots in the upcoming elections, potentially shifting up to 15 Knesset seats. These ballots, cast by voters away from their registered stations, historically tend to benefit Zionist parties over ultra-Orthodox and Arab ones. The final results for parties near the electoral threshold may not be clear for several days after the initial vote count, with past elections showing significant, though sometimes temporary, shifts in seat distribution.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

Up to 650,000 "double envelope" ballots are expected in Israel's upcoming elections, potentially impacting 15 Knesset seats.
The counting of these ballots, cast by voters away from their registered polling stations, can alter final election results.
Historically, double envelope votes tend to benefit Zionist parties and reduce results for ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
Parties near the electoral threshold may face uncertainty about their final Knesset representation for days after the initial count.
The number of double envelope ballots is expected to be the largest in Israeli election history.
The procedure involves placing a ballot inside an outer envelope with voter identification for verification.

Double Envelopes Could Shift Israeli Election Results by Up to 15 Knesset Seats — Editorial illustration generated by baba News, not a photograph of the event.

Ahead of Israel's upcoming elections on October 27, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) is preparing for a record number of "double envelope" ballots, with an estimated 600,000 to 650,000 voters casting their ballots away from their registered polling stations. This procedure, where a voter's ballot is placed inside an outer envelope containing their identification, is expected to significantly impact the final election results, potentially affecting up to 15 Knesset seats. The increase in these ballots is attributed to the large number of reservists and evacuated residents who will be voting far from home. In 2022, over 460,000 voters used this method.

The counting of these double envelopes, which occurs after the initial overnight results are published, can alter the distribution of Knesset seats within a week. Parties hovering near the electoral threshold may find their final standing unclear for a day or two until all these ballots are tallied. Historically, double envelope votes have tended to benefit Zionist parties while slightly reducing the results for ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties. This trend is linked to the demographic of those using the procedure, which includes a higher proportion of military personnel, diplomats, and prison service officers compared to the general population.

Past elections illustrate this effect. In 2022, the ultra-Orthodox party Yahadut HaTorah and the secular Yisrael Beiteinu party each saw their seat count shift by one mandate after the double envelopes were counted. The Meretz party, which was close to the electoral threshold, also saw its results negatively impacted. While initial counts can show significant fluctuations, such as the Religious Zionism party appearing to gain seats at Likud's expense, these shifts often do not hold in the final tally.

Data from the 2022 elections shows that Likud received approximately 23.5% of the double envelope votes, close to its national result. However, ultra-Orthodox parties like Yahadut HaTorah received a lower percentage (around 3.7%) compared to their national vote share, while the joint list of Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit saw a significant boost. The current election is anticipated to have the largest number of double envelope votes ever, making their final count particularly crucial for parties whose Knesset representation remains uncertain after the initial vote count.