Record Number of 'Double Envelopes' Expected in Upcoming Israeli Election

With the upcoming election just two days away, Israel's Central Elections Committee is preparing for an unprecedented number of "double envelope" ballots. These ballots are used by individuals unable to vote at their registered polling station, with an estimated 600,000 to 650,000 Israelis expected to use them this year, a significant increase from the over 460,000 who voted this way in 2022. The surge is largely attributed to the high number of reservists and evacuees who will be voting away from their homes. These ballots represent approximately 15 Knesset seats, and their counting, which occurs after the initial night results, could lead to shifts in seat distribution later in the week.

Historically, the impact of double envelope votes, while generally limited, has been noticeable. Typically accounting for 3% to 5% of all votes, their count has often altered the Knesset's seat allocation by one or two mandates. The composition of voters using this method, often soldiers, diplomats, police, and prison service personnel, tends to benefit Zionist parties while disadvantaging Haredi and Arab parties, as these groups are underrepresented among double envelope voters compared to their share in the general population.

In the 2022 elections, for example, the final count of double envelopes saw United Torah Judaism drop from 8 seats to 7, while Israel Beiteinu gained a seat, moving from 5 to 6. Meretz also narrowly avoided falling below the electoral threshold after their vote share decreased during the count. Data from 2022 showed that while Likud and Yesh Atid received vote shares from double envelopes similar to their national support, the Religious Zionism party received a disproportionately higher percentage (15.5% compared to 10.8% nationally). Conversely, United Torah Judaism and Arab parties received significantly lower percentages from these ballots than their national averages.

While these votes do not have a separate seat allocation, their impact is calculated based on the total valid votes. In 2022, with approximately 460,000 double envelope votes, they were equivalent to about 12 to 13 Knesset seats. The trend of these votes favoring certain parties and disadvantaging others has been consistent over the years, with similar effects observed in the March 2021 and April 2019 elections. With the projected 650,000 double envelope votes this year, their influence is expected to be greater than ever, meaning the final outcome for parties near the electoral threshold may not be clear until a day or two after election night.