Israel Election Results: When to Expect Final Tally Amid Double Envelope Votes

Israel is gearing up for an election on Tuesday, October 27, with over 7.3 million eligible voters set to cast ballots at more than 12,000 polling stations. Most stations will open at 7 AM and close at 10 PM, with earlier closures in smaller communities, hospitals, prisons, and nursing homes. Following the closure of the last polling station, a massive logistical operation managed by the Central Elections Committee will commence.

Immediately after polls close, ballot boxes and protocols detailing vote counts for each list will be transferred to regional election committees for final approval. Results will then be transmitted to the Central Elections Committee computers at the Knesset. Throughout the process, election supervisors and party representatives will monitor for irregularities, reporting in real-time. A post-election audit will also be conducted at the Knesset, involving a re-examination of protocols and, in some cases, a recount in randomly selected polling stations to verify results. This counting process is expected to run from election day until Thursday evening.

Initial exit poll results will be broadcast by television channels at 10 PM on election night, but these are estimates and may not be entirely accurate, especially in close elections. Preliminary results from polling stations are expected to be released on the Elections Committee website overnight and updated throughout Wednesday. However, the final picture will be delayed due to the counting of "double envelope" ballots. These ballots are cast by individuals voting outside their designated polling stations, including soldiers, police officers, hospital patients, prisoners, and residents of institutions. These votes are centralized at the Knesset, where voter names are cross-referenced with regular ballot lists to prevent double voting.

The Central Elections Committee anticipates an unprecedented number of double envelope ballots, an estimated 650,000, representing a 44% increase from the 2022 elections. This surge is attributed to the large number of reservists, displaced individuals voting away from home, and other factors. These votes are estimated to represent approximately 15 Knesset seats, meaning final results could shift significantly even after initial counts, potentially impacting parties close to the electoral threshold.

Votes from Israeli diplomatic missions abroad, which concluded earlier, have already been transferred to Israel for counting. The complex process of calculating Knesset seats involves verifying valid votes, determining which parties surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold, and then allocating seats based on the total votes of qualifying parties. Any remaining seats are distributed using a mathematical formula based on the "mandate meter," with surplus vote agreements between parties also playing a role.

Official results are due within eight days of the election, with the deadline on Wednesday, November 4. The 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Tuesday, November 10. Following the official results, the President will begin consultations with party leaders to determine who will be tasked with forming a government, typically within seven days. The designated candidate will have 28 days, extendable by 14, to form a coalition. If unsuccessful, the President can assign the task to another Knesset member or initiate a 21-day period where 61 MKs can propose a candidate. Failure to form a government will lead to the automatic dissolution of the Knesset and new elections. Until a new government is sworn in, the current government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will continue as a caretaker administration. President Herzog has stated his commitment to preventing further elections.