Israel Election: Dual Ballots Could Shift 15 Knesset Seats

Israel is heading to elections on Tuesday, October 27, with final results expected to take extra time due to approximately 650,000 "dual ballots" that could influence the distribution of around 15 Knesset seats. Over 7.33 million eligible voters will cast ballots at 12,018 polling stations for 38 electoral lists. Most polling stations close at 10 p.m., with exceptions for smaller towns, hospitals, prisons, and nursing homes, which close at 8 p.m.

The vote counting process begins after polls close, with ballot committees tallying votes and transferring them with official records to regional committees for verification. Central computers at the Knesset's election committee then receive the results. Election integrity monitors oversee the process, alongside party representatives who report any irregularities.

Initial results released on election night may not reflect the final outcome, as the counting of dual ballots, which include votes from soldiers, police, hospital patients, prisoners, and those voting outside their designated precincts, takes additional time. These ballots are collected at the Knesset, where voter eligibility is confirmed before their votes are counted. The election committee is preparing for about 650,000 dual ballots, a 44% increase from 2022, attributed to a large number of reservists and displaced individuals voting away from home. These votes could impact parties close to the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Knesset seats are allocated after determining valid votes and excluding lists below the threshold. Remaining votes are used to calculate a base seat allocation, with any leftover seats distributed using the Bader-Ofer method, considering surplus vote agreements between parties. The number of votes needed to cross the 3.25% threshold varies with voter turnout, estimated to be around 165,635 votes if turnout reaches 70%, based on a Taub Center analysis.

Exit polls are expected Tuesday at 10 p.m., with partial results appearing on the election committee's website overnight and continuing into Wednesday. The election committee aims to finalize all vote counts by Thursday noon, though the law allows up to eight days for official results, due by Wednesday, November 4. The 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Tuesday, November 10.

If a government cannot be formed after the official results, President Isaac Herzog consults with parliamentary factions. The designated candidate has 28 days, extendable by 14, to form a government. If unsuccessful, another candidate can be given 28 days, or the Knesset can recommend a candidate for a 14-day period. Failure to form a government leads to automatic Knesset dissolution and new elections. The current government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, will continue as a caretaker administration until a new government is sworn in.