Record Number of Double Envelopes Could Sway Israeli Election Results

An unprecedented surge in the number of reservist soldiers and evacuees voting via "double envelopes" is expected to significantly impact the results of Israel's 26th Knesset elections. These special ballots, which account for over 10% of all votes cast, could potentially decide the fate of parties near the electoral threshold. Dr. Assaf Shapira, a Research Fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, explained that the increase is primarily due to the large number of reservist soldiers called up for duty, a demographic known to lean right. Additionally, for the first time, evacuated residents used special accessible polling stations, contributing to the rise in double envelope usage.

The demographic profile of those using double envelopes shows fewer voters from the Arab and Haredi communities and more young people and reservists. Shapira noted that younger voters, born in the 1990s and later, tend to vote right-wing, and the increased presence of reservists is expected to influence vote distribution. Other groups utilizing these ballots include evacuees, the sick, elderly, disabled, and Israeli representatives abroad.

Parties positioned near the electoral threshold, such as the "Reservists-Economic" and "Amek Yisrael" parties, might receive a significant boost, though their ability to cross the threshold remains uncertain. Right-wing parties like Otzma Yehudit and Gadi Eisenkot's Yishai party could also benefit from reservist votes. Conversely, United Torah Judaism might see a decline, as the Haredi-Ashkenazi public has a very low rate of using double envelopes, potentially costing the party a seat. In contrast, Shas may benefit due to its higher proportion of voters who have served as soldiers.

The counting process for the double envelopes is set to begin after the regular ballots are tallied and will continue for several days. To ensure continuity amidst security concerns, the counting center has been established in the Knesset's protected parking lot, which doubles as a shelter. The process involves strict verification steps, including checking for double voting by cross-referencing with regular polling station data. If a voter has already cast a ballot at their original polling station, their double envelope is disqualified. The count begins with separating the outer envelope, containing voter details, from the inner envelope to maintain ballot secrecy.

Allegations of irregularities and fraud often surface around double envelopes, partly due to errors by poll workers. The Central Elections Committee had proposed a reform to streamline the process, allowing online address updates weeks before elections, but it was reportedly torpedoed due to political considerations.