Record Double Envelopes Could Decide Knesset Election Results

The Knesset's 26th election saw an unprecedented surge in "double envelopes", ballots cast by voters away from their registered polling stations, potentially influencing the final seat allocation. These envelopes, typically used by reservists, evacuees, and other eligible voters, are estimated to constitute over 10% of all votes cast, a significant increase from previous elections. This surge is largely attributed to the high number of reservist soldiers called up for duty, as explained by Dr. Assaf Shapira, a Research Fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute. For the first time, evacuees also contributed to the rise in special accessible polling stations nationwide.

The demographic profile of voters using double envelopes appears to favor younger individuals and reservists, with fewer votes coming from the Arab and Haredi sectors. Dr. Shapira notes a rightward tendency among younger voters (born in the 1990s and later) and expects the increased presence of reservists to impact vote distribution. While parties like the "Reservists-Economic" and "Amek Israel" might see a boost, their success in crossing the electoral threshold remains uncertain. Parties like Otzma Yehudit and Gadi Eisenkot's Yishai list could also benefit from reservist votes.

Conversely, the Haredi party United Torah Judaism may be negatively affected, as its voter base shows a low rate of using double envelopes, potentially leading to a loss of a Knesset seat. In contrast, Shas may benefit due to a higher proportion of soldiers among its voters. In the previous election, Arab parties and United Torah Judaism saw a significant drop in their vote share when comparing regular and double envelopes, while the National Unity party, including Eisenkot, saw an increase.

The counting process for the double envelopes is scheduled to begin the day after the regular ballots are tallied and is expected to conclude by Friday. To ensure continuity amidst security concerns, the counting facility has been established in the Knesset's protected parking lot, which doubles as a shelter. The process involves rigorous verification, including cross-referencing with regular polling station data to prevent double voting. The outer envelope containing voter identification is separated from the inner ballot envelope to maintain secrecy before counting.

Allegations of irregularities and fraud surrounding double envelopes have surfaced in past elections, often attributed to errors by poll workers. The Central Elections Committee had proposed a reform allowing online address updates weeks before elections to streamline the process, but this was reportedly blocked due to political considerations.