Israeli Election Polls Suggest Netanyahu May Lose Majority, Future Government Unclear

Electoral estimates from both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition suggest a potential loss of the parliamentary majority needed to form a new government, driven by increased voter turnout among Netanyahu's opponents and Arab citizens. However, even if the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot gains a relative majority, forming a government remains uncertain due to internal disagreements over its composition and leadership.

These projections, based on voting patterns and participation rates in Israeli towns, indicate a weakening of the Likud party in some strongholds, contrasted with higher turnout in major cities for Eisenkot's bloc and increased participation in the Arab community. The estimates suggest Eisenkot's bloc might secure a relative majority without reaching the 61-seat threshold, potentially leading to a minority government reliant on external party support, though success is not guaranteed.

The situation is further complicated by projections of Arab parties winning 15 to 16 seats. While increased representation could grant them greater parliamentary influence, it sparks internal debate within the anti-Netanyahu bloc regarding reliance on their support for government formation. This support, however, would likely prevent Netanyahu from continuing in power.

Mansour Abbas, chairman of the United List, has raised the possibility of his party participating in a government. Conversely, factions within Eisenkot's bloc categorically reject forming a minority government backed by Arab parties, even with parliamentary safety nets. This stance could limit the options for Zionist parties opposing Netanyahu, despite their potential seat gains.

Obstacles extend beyond relations with Arab parties to internal competition for the premiership. If Eisenkot does not secure an absolute majority, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman might demand a rotation agreement for the prime minister's post, complicating negotiations among opposition parties. Therefore, if initial estimates hold, Netanyahu's potential loss of a majority does not guarantee his rivals can form an alternative government, as success hinges on their ability to overcome divisions regarding Arab parties and reach consensus on leadership and power distribution.

Meanwhile, estimates do not rule out the Likud remaining the largest party in the Knesset if it successfully attracts votes from its right-wing allies in the final voting hours, boosting its seat count at the expense of coalition partners, though this would not guarantee a parliamentary majority for the bloc. Netanyahu could leverage the Likud's leading position to politically challenge the legitimacy of tasking another figure with forming a government, demanding the mandate for himself while seeking to retain power and prevent the opposition from controlling the Knesset and its institutions.

Regarding smaller parties, "Otzma Yehudit," led by the far-right the leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is projected to fall below the electoral threshold. The "Reserve and Economy" list, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, is borderline, potentially affecting seat distribution and parliamentary calculations for both blocs.

These projections emerge as Netanyahu intensifies calls for supporters to vote, warning of high Arab turnout and alleging election fraud and theft in an effort to bolster his bloc's position in the final voting hours. These claims could lay the groundwork for later questioning the integrity of the electoral process and its results, though it remains unclear if they will lead to concrete actions.

Final results may be delayed until Wednesday or Thursday due to the counting of over 650,000 double ballots from soldiers, diplomats, displaced persons, and individuals with disabilities, which could influence seat distribution and the fate of parties near the electoral threshold.