Israeli Election Polls Show Deep Divisions, No Clear Majority
Translated & summarized from i24NEWS French by baba
Israelis are voting for 120 Knesset members on Tuesday, October 27, amid deep uncertainty as polls show divergent results for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition. Key factors include the performance of smaller parties like Ofer Winter's and a large number of undecided voters. Gadi Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, raising concerns about coalition formation and potentially mirroring Israel's past political instability.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Israeli elections on October 27 feature highly divergent polls, with no clear majority indicated for any bloc.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is projected to win between 50 and 62 seats, depending on the poll.
- Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotation government.
- The performance of smaller parties and a significant number of undecided voters add to the electoral uncertainty.
- The outcome could lead to a national unity government, new elections, or a minority government.
Israel is heading to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, with 7.3 million voters set to elect 120 Knesset members. The campaign has been dominated by security concerns, the aftermath of the October 7th events, and the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As voting nears, the latest polls reveal exceptional uncertainty, with significant discrepancies between different surveys regarding the balance of power between Netanyahu and his main rival, former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.
A poll by i24NEWS/Direct Polls projected Netanyahu's bloc would win 59 seats, just two short of an absolute majority, with the opposition bloc securing 47 seats and Arab parties taking 14. However, other Israeli channels' polls present a different picture, attributing only 50 seats to Netanyahu's bloc and between 52 and 56 to the opposition. These surveys also suggest Yashar could outperform the Likud party. Conversely, Channel 14's poll gives the right-wing bloc 62 seats, a clear majority.
These conflicting projections are partly explained by the performance of smaller parties. Former general Ofer Winter's Amkha Israel party is predicted to win four seats by i24NEWS, but would fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold in polls from Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13. The high number of undecided voters, estimated at 36% in a Kan poll, further complicates the outlook.
The key challenge remains forming a coalition of 61 Knesset members. Gadi Eisenkot has stated unequivocally that he will not serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotation government. Public opinion is divided on how to resolve a potential deadlock: a Kan poll indicated 27% favor a national unity government, an equal number prefer new elections, and 26% would support a minority government.
This uncertainty echoes Israel's prolonged political crisis between April 2019 and November 2022, which saw five elections without a stable parliamentary majority. Initial election estimates are expected Tuesday at 10 PM local time upon the closing of polling stations, but results may shift significantly overnight.
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