Every Vote Counts: Professor Explains How Single Ballots Can Decide Elections

Professor Asher Cohen of Bar-Ilan University emphasized the critical importance of voting, citing historical instances where a small number of votes, even a single ballot, significantly altered election outcomes. He pointed to the April 2019 Israeli Knesset elections, where only four votes separated two surplus vote agreements competing for the final mandate. Although this particular instance did not shift the balance between political blocs because both agreements belonged to the same camp, Cohen argues it highlights how a minimal difference can be decisive in closely contested elections.

Cohen explained that the common slogan "Every vote counts" is more than just encouragement to participate. While statistically, a single vote deciding an election is rare, political history offers examples of such occurrences. He suggested that in the 2019 elections, if approximately 1,450 people who abstained had voted, the right-wing bloc might have secured a clear victory instead of a stalemate, potentially impacting the government's formation.

He further elaborated on the complex process of surplus vote distribution, where remaining mandates are allocated after the initial count. In the 2019 elections, the final mandate was contested between the surplus vote agreement of the Likud and the Union of Right-Wing Parties, and that of Shas and United Torah Judaism. The difference in votes between these two agreements was a mere four votes (31,707 versus 31,703), a detail largely overlooked by the public.

Cohen illustrated a hypothetical scenario where the Knesset is deadlocked at 60-60, and the final mandate is up for grabs. If this mandate is contested between agreements from opposing blocs, its allocation could determine the majority. He stressed that the public is often unaware of these intricate calculations, focusing instead on overall bloc numbers and the 61-seat threshold.

As an international example, Cohen referenced a 2017 Virginia House of Delegates race in the United States, where a single disputed ballot, after a recount, determined the outcome, resulting in a Republican majority rather than a tie. Cohen concluded that while individual votes might seem insignificant in elections requiring tens of thousands of votes per mandate, their cumulative effect, especially near the electoral threshold or in surplus vote distributions, can be substantial.