Polls Can Sway Votes, Especially for Parties Near Election Threshold
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Professor Asher Cohen warns that election polls can significantly influence voter choices, especially for parties near the electoral threshold, potentially causing them to lose votes or fail to enter the Knesset. He explains that statistical sampling errors, even in well-conducted polls, can be critical for these parties. Cohen cited the Jewish Home party's past performance as an example of how fear of wasted votes can impact results, and noted that some countries restrict pre-election poll releases to counter this effect.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Election polls can sway voter decisions, particularly impacting parties near the electoral threshold, warns Professor Asher Cohen.
- Fear of a wasted vote causes some individuals to abandon their preferred party for another, influencing poll accuracy.
- Statistical sampling errors in polls, even with large samples, can be critical for parties close to the election threshold.
- The Jewish Home party's past performance is cited as an example of how voter fears can affect election outcomes.
- Some countries limit pre-election poll releases to reduce their influence on voter choices.
Professor Asher Cohen of Bar-Ilan University is warning that voters are placing too much faith in election polls, which can significantly influence voting decisions, particularly for parties hovering around the electoral threshold. He explains that a party polling at five seats might fail to enter the Knesset, while a party consistently shown as just below the threshold could unexpectedly gain five or six seats.
Cohen highlights that polls are not merely a measure of public opinion but can actively shape voter behavior. The fear of a wasted vote causes some individuals to abandon their preferred party and choose another, especially when a party is perceived as being close to, but not definitively over, the electoral threshold. "There is no scientific way to truly tell us if the party we said has five seats is not actually below the electoral threshold," Cohen stated.
He distinguishes between two types of errors in polls: errors in the survey's methodology, such as a non-representative sample, and inherent statistical sampling errors. Even a perfectly conducted poll with a representative sample of 500 to 1,500 participants cannot perfectly reflect the opinions of millions of voters. While increasing sample size reduces statistical error, it does not eliminate it. A poll of 500 participants might have a margin of error of 4-4.5%, dropping to around 3% or less with over 1,000 participants. However, even a small margin of error can be critical for parties near the electoral threshold.
Cohen points to the Jewish Home party, led by Ayelet Shaked in a past election, as an example of a party that likely had more support than it received because voters feared wasting their votes. This phenomenon leads to a double loss for smaller parties: they lose potential votes and their supporters may bolster rival parties, further weakening their own standing.
He notes that some countries limit the publication of election polls close to voting day to mitigate their influence. Cohen believes the final week before an election is particularly crucial for parties near the threshold, as each new poll can either solidify support or increase anxiety about vote wastage. He identifies the parties of Yoaz Hendel and Ofer Winter as currently facing this challenge. The entry or non-entry of parties around the threshold can also dramatically alter the overall seat distribution, especially in elections where blocs are closely matched.
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