Small Parties Could Decide Election Outcome, Pollster Says
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Senior pollster Menachem Lazar believes small parties on the electoral threshold could determine the election's outcome, as undecided voters may shift to larger parties. He noted that higher turnout could disadvantage these smaller parties. Lazar also suggested the opposition bloc might see increased mandates due to higher expected turnout, though forming a clear majority government remains unlikely, potentially leading to complex coalition scenarios.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Small parties on the electoral threshold may decide the election outcome, according to pollster Menachem Lazar.
- Voter turnout within each political bloc is expected to be a decisive factor in the election.
- The opposition bloc may gain more mandates due to potentially higher voter turnout.
- The "Bechaim" party has seen a significant rise in polls, potentially reaching 14 mandates.
- No bloc is projected to secure a clear majority, suggesting complex government formation possibilities.
Senior pollster Menachem Lazar explained that small parties, particularly those on the electoral threshold, could significantly influence the upcoming election results. He noted that undecided voters leaning towards these parties might switch to larger parties within the same bloc if they fear their preferred party won't pass the electoral threshold. Lazar added that higher overall voter turnout could further complicate matters for these smaller parties, as the number of votes required for a mandate increases.
Lazar also commented on the rise of the "Bechaim" party, which he said could continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 14 mandates. However, he believes this surge primarily involves shifts within a political bloc and has minimal impact on the balance between the blocs themselves, where the success of smaller parties is more critical.
The pollster emphasized that voter turnout within each bloc will be a decisive factor. He suggested that the opposition bloc might see higher turnout than the coalition, potentially increasing their mandate count beyond the 54 indicated in recent polls. Lazar acknowledged that polls are not always precise and that the final election results depend on actual votes, which can introduce variables that polls cannot fully capture.
Regarding the possibility of forming a government, Lazar stated that based on current numbers, no single bloc is likely to achieve a clear majority. He suggested that the "change bloc" could explore options like forming a minority government, potentially with the support of Ra'am, to avoid further elections, which most politicians would likely want to avoid, especially parties that manage to pass the threshold.
Mentioned
