Senior Pollster: Small Parties Could Decide Election Outcome
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Two weeks before elections, pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar believes two small parties could determine the outcome. Lazar stated that the success of Avi Winter's party and the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin near the electoral threshold is crucial. He noted that undecided voters are unlikely to switch blocs, but their turnout could be decisive. If Hendel and Elkin join the opposition, they could reach 58 mandates, potentially tipping the scales.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar says two small parties could decide Israel's election outcome.
- The success of Avi Winter's party and the Hendel-Elkin list near the threshold is critical.
- If Winter's party fails, the opposition bloc gains; if Hendel-Elkin fails, the coalition bloc strengthens.
- Undecided voters, 5-6%, are unlikely to switch blocs but could influence turnout.
- The opposition bloc could reach 58 mandates if joined by Hendel and Elkin.
- Lazar stated the public is "locked in" with firm support for or against Netanyahu.
With just two weeks until election day, Israeli politics is bracing for a dramatic conclusion, according to pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar. Speaking on Radio 103FM, Lazar, who polls for Maariv and heads Lazar Research, analyzed current mandate surveys and identified two small parties as potential kingmakers.
Lazar suggested that the final outcome may hinge on the success of two parties positioned near the electoral threshold: Avi Winter's party and the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin. "We cannot know what will truly happen," Lazar stated. He explained that if Winter's party fails to pass the threshold, the opposition bloc gains an advantage. Conversely, if Hendel and Elkin's party falls short, the coalition bloc strengthens, potentially leading to a stalemate and new elections.
The pollster noted that the remaining undecided voters, estimated at 5-6%, are unlikely to switch between the main blocs. Instead, their decisions will likely be within their respective blocs, and their ultimate turnout could be influenced by campaign efforts. "The public is locked in," Lazar observed, adding that those supporting Netanyahu are firm in their stance, as are those against him.
Lazar indicated that a clear tie between the blocs currently seems unlikely, unless unforeseen political events occur. He pointed out that if Hendel and Elkin join the "change bloc" (widely understood as the opposition), it would bring them to 58 mandates, placing them on the very edge of a potential victory. "An unusual turnout on that side could tip the scales. We have seen everything before," he concluded.
