Small Parties May Decide Election Outcome, Analysts Say
Translated & summarized from Ynet by baba
Two small centrist parties, led by Ofer Vinter and Handel and Zalich, may significantly impact Israeli election results by potentially surpassing the electoral threshold. Other parties, including Moti Leitner's Haredi faction and Benny Gantz's party, are polling below the threshold but could still affect vote distribution. Efforts are being made by major political blocs to encourage these smaller parties to withdraw before the election.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two small centrist parties, led by Ofer Vinter and Handel and Zalich, may significantly influence Israeli election results.
- Ofer Vinter's party is polling around 3%, just below the 3.25% electoral threshold.
- Moti Leitner's Haredi party and Benny Gantz's party are polling significantly below the threshold.
- Major political blocs are reportedly trying to persuade smaller parties to withdraw from the election.
- Voter decisions on parties near the threshold can amount to hundreds of thousands of votes.
- Ofer Vinter's potential withdrawal or success could benefit Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party.
Two small centrist parties are poised to significantly influence the upcoming Israeli election results, according to ynet Knesset reporter Amir Ettinger. One is led by Ofer Vinter, which polls suggest is surpassing the electoral threshold, and the other by Handel and Zalich. Ettinger noted that Moti Leitner's ultra-Orthodox party, "The Haredi Public," is polling around 1%, far below the threshold but potentially enough to siphon votes from Haredi voters. Benny Gantz's party is also polling significantly below the threshold.
Ettinger explained that in past elections, voters often avoid casting ballots for parties hovering near the electoral threshold, fearing their votes will be wasted. However, these votes can amount to hundreds of thousands. To cross the threshold, a party needs approximately 160,000 votes, a substantial number.
Efforts are underway in both major blocs to encourage these smaller parties to withdraw. Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc is reportedly trying to persuade Vinter to drop out, an outcome Ettinger deems unlikely. Similar pressure is reportedly being applied to Leitner within the Haredi community. Conversely, the "change bloc" is hoping Handel and Zalich will withdraw, which also appears improbable. Gantz is described as remaining stubborn and unlikely to withdraw.
If Vinter runs and fails to cross the threshold, he could draw votes away from Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc, with right-wing attacks reportedly weakening his party in polls. Vinter's party is averaging around 3% in polls, while the threshold is 3.25%. Handel and Zalich face pressure from both sides due to their voter base drawing from across the political spectrum. Ettinger suggested that if only Vinter crosses the threshold, he would likely align with Netanyahu, meaning his aggressive campaign could benefit the Likud regardless of whether Vinter succeeds or fails to cross the threshold by returning voters to Likud.
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