Three Polls Show Divergent Election Results, With Eisenkot's Party Gaining
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Three recent Israeli opinion polls show conflicting results for the upcoming election, with varying seat allocations for political blocs and parties. One poll indicates the right-wing bloc could reach 61 seats, while another shows Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc at 51 seats, with Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party leading in a third poll. Several parties, including Ofer Winter's Am Israel, failed to cross the electoral threshold in most surveys. The polls also suggest a significant portion of the public is considering not voting, and a majority would prefer a unity government if no single bloc can form a coalition.
The story in 7 lines · by baba
- Three new Israeli election polls show divergent results regarding party strength and bloc majorities.
- One poll suggests the right-wing bloc could reach the crucial 61-seat majority.
- Another poll places Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc at 51 seats, with Gadi Eisenkot's party at 52.
- Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party leads in one poll, surpassing Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud.
- Several parties, including Ofer Winter's Am Israel, failed to cross the electoral threshold in most polls.
- A significant percentage of voters are considering not voting, according to one survey.
- A majority of voters prefer a unity government if no bloc can form a coalition.
Three new opinion polls released Sunday present conflicting pictures of the upcoming Israeli election, with significant variations in party strength and bloc calculations. While one poll suggests the right-wing bloc could reach the crucial 61-seat majority, another places Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at only 51 seats, with a rival bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party at 52.
The polls also differ on which party will be the largest. The Likud leads in polls from Channel 14 and i24NEWS, but in a Kan News poll, Eisenkot's Yishar party emerges as the largest.
In the Channel 14 poll, the right-wing bloc receives 61 seats, a one-seat decrease from a previous poll, while the left-wing and Arab parties gain one seat to reach 59. The Likud remains the largest party with 29 seats. Yishar gains two seats to reach 22, while Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's Together party loses a seat to 10. Shas receives 10 seats, United Torah Judaism 8, the Religious Zionism and Identity parties 7 each, and Otzma Yehudit 7. The Democrats get 8 seats, the Joint List 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 6, and Ra'am 6.
The i24NEWS poll, conducted by Direct Polls, shows the Likud with 25 seats, followed by Yishar with 21 and Together with 13. Otzma Yehudit receives 10 seats, the Democrats 9, and Shas, United Torah Judaism, and the Joint List 8 each. Yisrael Beiteinu, Religious Zionism, Identity, and Ra'am each get 6 seats.
Kan News presents a different scenario, with Yishar gaining to 23 seats, surpassing the Likud's 21. Together receives 12 seats, the Democrats 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, and Yisrael Beiteinu 8. Shas gets 8 seats, United Torah Judaism 7, and Religious Zionism and Identity gain two seats to reach 7. The Hadash-Ta'al and Balad parties together receive 8 seats, and Ra'am gets 5. Notably, the poll shows the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel and the Economic party led by Yaron Zelekha crossing the electoral threshold with 4 seats.
Across the three polls, Ofer Winter's Am Israel party fails to cross the electoral threshold, receiving 2.9% in the i24NEWS poll and 2.4% in the Channel 14 poll. The Hendel-Zelekha list also falls below the threshold in these two polls but passes it in the Kan News poll. Other parties like Blue and White, Noam, and various ultra-Orthodox lists also fail to cross the threshold in some polls.
Regarding voter turnout, the Kan News poll indicates that 26% of respondents are considering not voting. In a scenario where no bloc can form a government, a majority of voters prefer a unity government over other tested alternatives. The Channel 14 poll surveyed 559 adults and was analyzed by Shlomo Filber, while the i24NEWS poll surveyed 525 adults with a margin of error of 4.2%.
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