How Votes Are Counted and Mandates Allocated in Israeli Elections

The process of determining the composition of the next Knesset involves several complex stages beyond simply casting ballots. Not all votes are counted towards the final tally; invalid votes and those for parties failing to pass the electoral threshold are initially discarded. Only valid votes for parties that meet the 3.25% threshold, which requires approximately 155,000 votes in the 2022 election and is expected to be higher this time due to an increase in eligible voters, are used to allocate the 120 Knesset seats.

To calculate the value of a single mandate, the total remaining votes are divided by 120, creating a "mandate meter." Each party is then allocated a number of full mandates based on its total votes divided by this meter. However, this method does not distribute all 120 seats, leading to the distribution of remaining mandates through surplus vote agreements and the Bader-Ofer method.

The Bader-Ofer method, a mathematical formula, is used to distribute the remaining mandates. In each round, a party's total votes are divided by its already allocated mandates plus one. The party with the highest result receives the next mandate, a process repeated until all 120 seats are filled. This method often favors larger parties, even if smaller parties have more leftover votes, as demonstrated by an example where a party with fewer surplus votes received the next mandate due to a higher quotient.

Surplus vote agreements allow two parties to pool their remaining votes, effectively running as a single entity for the distribution of leftover mandates, increasing their chances of gaining an additional seat. This agreement is only valid if both parties pass the electoral threshold. Some parties, like Otzma Yehudit and HaMekunim, chose not to sign these agreements in the current election, foregoing this advantage.

While initial partial results are expected on election night, the near-final results are not anticipated until Thursday evening. This delay is primarily due to the significant increase in "double envelope" votes, cast by individuals unable to vote at their designated polling stations, such as soldiers, prisoners, and hospital patients. The verification process for these votes, ensuring no one voted twice, extends the counting period. In 2022, over 462,000 people used double envelopes; this number is projected to reach around 600,000 this year. Dean Livna, Acting Director-General of the Central Elections Committee, cited increased reserve duty, ongoing conflicts, more hospitalizations, displaced persons, and a higher number of election officials as reasons for the surge. He anticipates the counting of these votes will conclude by Thursday evening.

Preliminary results might be available as early as midnight or 1:00 AM on election night, as polling station results are published after regional committee approval. However, these early figures can differ significantly from the final outcome, as a small number of votes can determine whether a party crosses the electoral threshold and alter the overall mandate distribution. For instance, in the 2022 election, Meretz was only about 4,000 votes short of passing the threshold. The official results will be submitted to the President by November 4, with the mandate to form a government expected to be assigned by November 11.