Ex-Likud Campaign Chief Recalls 2015 Election Surprises Amidst Poll Discrepancies

Shlomo (Momo) Philber, a former campaign manager for the Likud party and current pollster for Channel 14, recalled the 2015 Israeli general election during a recent broadcast. He noted that on the Thursday before the election, polls predicted 20 Knesset seats for Likud, but the party ultimately secured 30 seats by election day. Philber managed the Likud campaign in 2015, a year when the party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, emerged as the largest party. He referenced this memory in the context of current discrepancies between Channel 14's polls and those from other media outlets for the upcoming 26th Knesset elections.

Philber stated that in the 2015 election, initial polls showed Likud with 20 seats, with some analytical polls predicting 27, but the final result was 30 seats. The 2015 election results highlighted the difficulty in accurately predicting voter shifts in the final days of a campaign. The Zionist Union, led by Yitzhak Herzog and Tzipi Livni, received 24 seats in that election.

This comparison comes amid significant differences in current poll predictions for the Likud's strength. A Channel 14 poll on October 20 predicted 30 seats for Likud, while other polling agencies projected a lower number. However, the article cautions that the 2015 election does not necessarily predict the outcome of the current election, as party compositions, issues, and voting patterns differ. The fact that some polls missed the mark in the past does not guarantee which polling institute will be accurate this time.

For Philber, the 2015 experience underscores that even large gaps between predictions can change by election day. Now heading Channel 14's polling operation, the direct test will be whether the results at the ballot boxes match the forecasts presented throughout the current election campaign.