Pollster Filber Claims Rival Surveys Inflate Small Parties at Likud's Expense
Translated & summarized from Now 14 by baba
Pollster Shlomo Filber claims rival surveys unfairly boost small parties by reducing the Likud's projected seat count. He suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu's statements about an even bloc split may be a campaign strategy. Significant differences exist between polls, with the Likud projected between 18 and 29 seats. Filber maintains his prediction of a right-wing bloc victory with 63-64 mandates, despite acknowledging potential impacts from undecided voters and parties near the electoral threshold.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Shlomo Filber accuses rival surveys of taking mandates from Likud to boost smaller parties.
- Filber suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu's talk of an even bloc split might be a campaign tactic.
- Recent polls show a significant gap, projecting the Likud with 18 to 29 seats.
- Filber predicts a right-wing bloc will win 63-64 mandates in the upcoming elections.
- Undecided voters and parties near the electoral threshold are key factors influencing the outcome.
Shlomo Filber, a pollster for Channel 14, has publicly criticized competing polling firms, alleging they artificially inflate the mandate numbers for smaller parties by taking them away from the Likud. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Filber stated that many polls have reduced the Likud's projected seat count by ten mandates, redistributing them to "fringe parties" to suggest they are crossing the electoral threshold. He expressed confidence that the true picture would emerge on election day, October 27.
Filber's remarks sparked debate, with one user pointing out the discrepancy between his claims and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's public statements about an even split between blocs. Filber suggested that Netanyahu's message of a tie might be a campaign tactic rather than a reflection of actual polling data. This comes amidst significant disparities in recent polls, with one Channel 14 survey showing the Likud with 29 seats, while a Channel 13 poll from earlier in October projected only 18 seats for the party.
Filber previously explained that these discrepancies stem not from different data collection methods, but from how pollsters analyze responses and predict voter behavior. He highlighted a group of approximately eight million voters who previously supported Likud and right-wing parties but are now undecided, suggesting that other pollsters attribute a significant portion of these voters to parties like Naftali Bennett's, while he believes more will return to the right bloc.
Despite the wide range of poll results, Filber maintains his prediction of a right-wing bloc securing 63 to 64 mandates in the upcoming elections. He acknowledged that factors like voter turnout in the Arab and Haredi communities, and the performance of parties hovering around the electoral threshold, could impact the final outcome. He noted that two parties near the threshold currently hold six to seven mandates combined, and if they fail to pass the threshold, these votes could be lost, potentially harming the right bloc more than the left.
Filber also commented on the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's support for Netanyahu, with 13% of respondents in a Channel 14 poll indicating it could influence their vote. Filber believes the political battle is focused on undecided centrist voters, and shifting just three to four mandates from this group could alter the bloc distribution. He identified national security and U.S.-Israel relations as key issues influencing these voters.
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