Pollster Shlomo Filber Predicts Right-Wing Victory in Upcoming Elections
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Pollster Shlomo Filber predicts a right-wing bloc victory with 61 to 64 seats in the upcoming elections. He believes Likud voters remain loyal and that smaller parties like Blue and White have potential. Filber anticipates ultra-Orthodox parties will secure over 18 seats, and discussions of withdrawals will increase mid-week. His forecast hinges on turnout among ultra-Orthodox and Arab voters.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Shlomo Filber predicts a right-wing bloc victory with 61-64 seats.
- Filber believes 400,000 Likud voters from 2022 remain loyal and will vote.
- Recent polls showing Likud with 18 seats are seen as an artificial attempt to boost Gadi Eisenkot's party.
- Ultra-Orthodox parties are expected to win over 18 seats and are already discussing a right-wing government.
- Filber suggests smaller parties like Ofer Winter's and Yoaz Zalicha's may struggle against larger parties.
- Discussions of party withdrawals are expected mid-week as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Pollster and analyst Shlomo Filber has released his final assessments ahead of the upcoming elections, maintaining his prediction of a right-wing bloc victory. Filber stated that the 400,000 Likud voters from the 2022 elections have not left the party but remain within the right-wing camp and are expected to vote in large numbers. He dismissed recent polls showing the Likud with only 18 seats as an artificial attempt to create a gap between them and Gadi Eisenkot's party, emphasizing that the Likud's true test will be matching its previous voter turnout.
Regarding smaller parties, Filber believes it is too early to dismiss Blue and White, citing their conservative and undecided voter base that has surprised in the past. He noted that Ofer Winter and Yoaz Zalicha are currently experiencing a surge in support but may face challenges surviving against larger parties. Filber anticipates that discussions of party withdrawals will intensify mid-week as smaller parties' billboards are removed to make way for the larger parties' final campaign push.
Filber also commented on the ultra-Orthodox parties, estimating they will exceed 18 seats and are already debating the spoils of a potential right-wing government. He concluded that the left-wing bloc is no longer expected to win outright, with a draw being the best-case scenario, potentially involving Arab parties to control the Knesset for a subsequent round. Filber's ultimate forecast remains a right-wing victory with 61 to 64 seats, contingent on voter turnout among the ultra-Orthodox and Arab populations.
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