Pollster Predicts Right-Wing Bloc Will Win Election With 61-64 Seats
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
Pollster Shlomo Filber predicts the right-wing bloc will win the upcoming Israeli elections with 61-64 seats, challenging recent unfavorable polls for the Likud party. He believes many past Likud voters will return, while new parties face significant challenges. Filber also notes the center-left bloc is aiming for a tie rather than a victory. The final results may hinge on turnout from the Haredi and Arab communities.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Shlomo Filber forecasts a right-wing election victory with 61-64 seats.
- Filber disputes low Likud poll numbers, calling it a tactic to boost the "Yashar" party.
- The Likud's organizational ability to mobilize voters is crucial for exceeding 30 seats.
- New parties led by Ofer Winter and Yaron Zelekha face existential threats.
- The center-left bloc is reportedly aiming for a political tie, not a clear victory.
- Turnout among Haredi and Arab communities will significantly impact the final results.
Pollster and political commentator Shlomo Filber has published an analysis predicting a clear victory for the right-wing bloc in the upcoming elections, projecting they will secure 61 to 64 seats. Filber disputes recent poll numbers that show the Likud party at a low of 18 seats, suggesting this is a tactic to artificially boost the "Yashar" party. He argues that approximately 400,000 voters who supported Likud in 2022 have not abandoned the right-wing camp and are expected to vote.
Filber emphasizes that the Likud's critical challenge will be its organizational ability to replicate its 2022 turnout, warning that without full mobilization, the party may struggle to exceed 30 seats. He also cautions against prematurely dismissing the Blue and White party, identifying a conservative, undecided voter base for Benny Gantz, and notes the party has surprised by exceeding the electoral threshold twice.
New parties led by Ofer Winter and Yaron Zelekha face an existential threat, according to Filber. He anticipates that large-scale billboard advertising for smaller parties will be removed mid-week to make way for the major parties' final campaigns. Discussions about smaller lists withdrawing to prevent vote loss are expected as the election nears.
Filber notes that while Haredi parties are working to maximize turnout among their constituents, internal disputes over positions have already begun, contingent on a right-wing government. He assesses that the center-left bloc now understands a clear victory is unlikely and is aiming for a political tie to potentially gain tactical control of the Knesset with Arab party support, delaying further elections.
Ultimately, Filber maintains his forecast of a right-wing bloc victory, with the final outcome depending significantly on turnout among the Haredi and Arab populations.
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