Pollster Predicts Right-Wing Bloc Will Win 61-64 Seats
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Pollster Shlomo Filber predicts the right-wing bloc will win the upcoming Israeli elections with 61-64 seats, depending on ultra-Orthodox and Arab voter turnout. He suggests Likud's poll decline is strategic and advises against underestimating Benny Gantz's party. Filber also anticipates over 18 seats for ultra-Orthodox parties and sees a potential political tie as more likely than a left-wing victory, with a right-wing majority remaining his primary forecast.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Pollster Shlomo Filber forecasts a right-wing bloc victory with 61-64 seats in the upcoming elections.
- Final election results depend heavily on voter turnout in the ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities.
- Filber suggests Likud's poll drop is a tactic to bolster Yisrael Beiteinu's image as the larger party.
- Benny Gantz's party is seen as having a potentially frustrated conservative base that could help them pass the threshold.
- Ultra-Orthodox parties are expected to gain over 18 seats, with their influence tied to a right-wing government.
- A political tie, possibly with Arab party support, is considered a more likely scenario than a clear left-wing win.
Pollster Shlomo Filber estimates that the right-wing bloc is poised to win the upcoming elections with a majority of 61 to 64 seats, with the final outcome largely dependent on voter turnout among the ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities. In a series of insights, Filber cautioned against drawing premature conclusions from current seat projections, highlighting the next two weeks as a critical period that could alter the political landscape.
Filber suggests that approximately 400,000 Likud voters from the 2022 elections remain loyal and are expected to vote. He posits that the Likud's current dip in polls to 18 seats may be a tactic to create an artificial gap with the Yisrael Beiteinu party, allowing the latter to present itself as the larger party. Concurrently, Filber advises against dismissing Benny Gantz and the Blue and White party, noting a frustrated, conservative voter base that is still undecided but favors Gantz, though doubts persist about the party's ability to pass the electoral threshold. Gantz has reportedly seen two surprising surges in support over the past week.
Within the ultra-Orthodox sector, Filber observes preparations for a significant effort to boost voter turnout, alongside ongoing internal struggles for political power and positions post-election. He estimates that the ultra-Orthodox parties could collectively secure over 18 seats, but emphasizes that their political influence will hinge on the type of government formed, suggesting that their desired achievements are most likely attainable within a right-wing government.
Regarding smaller parties, including those led by Ofer Vintz and Zelicha, Filber notes a temporary rise above the electoral threshold. He believes their true test lies ahead, particularly as Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu vie for dominance within their bloc. The removal of smaller parties' billboards mid-week, as larger parties enter the final campaign stretch, could signal a renewed discussion about withdrawals and candidate withdrawals, according to Filber.
Filber maintains that the possibility of a clear left-wing bloc victory is no longer the central focus of political discourse. He suggests a more likely scenario is a political tie, potentially leading to attempts to form a Knesset majority with the support of Arab parties before another election round. Ultimately, Filber's core prediction remains unchanged: the right-wing bloc is heading towards a 61-64 seat majority, contingent on Likud's voter turnout, the ultra-Orthodox parties' ability to mobilize their voters, and the turnout in the Arab community.
