Netanyahu's Return: How Israeli Election Dynamics Led to a Coalition Majority
Translated & summarized from Al-Shams by baba
Benjamin Netanyahu returned as Israel's Prime Minister following the November 1, 2022 elections, securing a 64-seat majority for his bloc. The elections followed years of political instability and inconclusive votes. Key factors included shifting alliances, the electoral threshold, and the fragmentation of the Arab political parties. Netanyahu's Likud party led with 32 seats, enabling his coalition to form a government, while his opponents failed to unite.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Benjamin Netanyahu returned as Prime Minister after his bloc won 64 seats in the November 1, 2022 Israeli elections.
- Years of political instability and four inconclusive elections preceded the November 2022 vote.
- The "change" government led by Bennett and Lapid collapsed due to internal dissent and narrow majorities.
- Party alliances shifted significantly before the election, including the fragmentation of Arab political lists.
- Parties needed to cross a 3.25% electoral threshold to gain Knesset seats, causing some to miss representation.
- Netanyahu's bloc, comprising Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism, formed the new government.
The November 1, 2022, Israeli Knesset elections concluded a period of political instability that began in 2019, ultimately returning Benjamin Netanyahu to the premiership with a 64-seat majority. The outcome was shaped by four inconclusive elections, a diverse "change" government that collapsed, and shifting alliances. Key factors included the ability of political blocs to form stable majorities, rather than just individual party seat counts, and the electoral threshold.
Israel's political stagnation started in April 2019, with no clear winner between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. Subsequent elections in September 2019 and March 2020 failed to resolve the deadlock, leading to a short-lived unity government between Netanyahu and Gantz that dissolved over budget disputes. The March 2021 elections saw eight parties, including Arab parties, form a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, ending Netanyahu's long tenure. This "change" government, united primarily by opposition to Netanyahu, had a narrow 61-seat majority, making it vulnerable to internal dissent.
The Bennett-Lapid government's majority eroded in April 2022 when Idit Silman defected over religious issues, followed by Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi's temporary departure due to disagreements on Palestinian issues. Nir Orbach's exit in June further destabilized the coalition. These defections highlighted the difficulty of managing a government with diverse views on religion, state, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In June 2022, Bennett and Lapid agreed to dissolve the Knesset, triggering new elections for November 1. Lapid became interim Prime Minister, while Bennett retired from politics.
Ahead of the 2022 elections, parties reorganized alliances. Benny Gantz's Blue and White and Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope merged into the "National Unity" party, joined by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. The right-wing saw alliances form and dissolve, with Ayelet Shaked initially joining forces with "The Spirit of Zion" before partnering with "The Jewish Home." The election campaign coincided with Israel's "Breaking Dawn" military operation in Gaza, which brought security issues into the political discourse.
A significant development was the split within the Arab political bloc. The Joint List disintegrated in September 2022, with the National Democratic Assembly separating from the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality and the Arab Movement for Change. This division, following the 2021 election where the United Arab List joined the Bennett-Lapid coalition, led to three separate Arab lists competing in 2022. The United Arab List and the Democratic Front/Arab Movement for Change each won five seats, while the National Democratic Assembly failed to pass the electoral threshold.
The Israeli electoral system requires parties to cross a 3.25% threshold to gain Knesset seats. In 2022, the National Democratic Assembly and the Meretz party (which garnered approximately 3.2% of the vote) did not secure representation. This system means votes for parties below the threshold are lost, while seats are redistributed among those that pass. Vote-sharing agreements between allied parties can also influence seat allocation.
Final results showed Likud leading with 32 seats, followed by Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid with 24. The Religious Zionism alliance secured 14 seats, National Unity 12, Shas 11, and United Torah Judaism 7. The two Arab lists that passed the threshold each received 5 seats. Voter turnout was approximately 70.63%. While Likud was the largest party, Netanyahu's bloc, including Religious Zionism, Shas, and United Torah Judaism, collectively won 64 seats, enabling him to form a government. The opposing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, could not assemble a sufficient majority due to political differences.
Netanyahu's return was facilitated by his bloc securing 64 seats, surpassing the 61 needed for a majority. The opposing parties, despite winning significant seats individually, failed to unite. Unlike the diverse 2021 coalition, Netanyahu's 2022 government was formed from parties with closer ideological alignment on national and religious issues, providing a more stable parliamentary base after years of political instability.
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