Netanyahu's Election History Reveals Patterns of Resilience and Coalition Building
Translated & summarized from Shakuf by baba
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is contesting his 12th election, having formed a government in six of the previous eleven. His electoral success is marked by an ability to build coalitions even after losing popular vote counts, as seen in 2020 and 2022. The analysis highlights how votes for parties below the electoral threshold can alter seat allocations, with significant wasted votes in 2022 impacting the opposition. Despite challenges like potential vote wastage and internal bloc divisions, Netanyahu's resilience suggests his political future remains uncertain until a new government is formed.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Benjamin Netanyahu is competing in his 12th election, having formed a government in 6 of the previous 11.
- Netanyahu's bloc secured 64 seats in 2022 with 48.38% of the vote, but over half the votes went elsewhere.
- Wasted votes for parties failing to pass the threshold significantly impact seat allocation, as seen in 2022.
- Netanyahu's political strength lies in coalition building rather than consistent personal majority support.
- Challenges for Netanyahu include potential vote wastage and divisions within his traditional bloc.
- Netanyahu's political future remains uncertain until a new government is formed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is competing in his 12th Knesset election, having successfully formed a coalition and become prime minister in six of the previous eleven. His political career spans over 19 years in office. An analysis of his past election performances from 1996 to 2022 reveals a consistent pattern: while his bloc may not always secure a majority of the popular vote, Netanyahu has demonstrated a remarkable ability to form governments, even after electoral losses.
In the 2022 elections, the parties forming Netanyahu's sixth government secured 64 seats, representing 48.38% of the valid votes. However, more than half the votes went to other lists, including Ayelet Shaked's Jewish Home, which had pledged support for Netanyahu. Similarly, in 2020, Netanyahu's bloc received 48.37% of the votes, translating to only 58 seats, forcing him into a rotation government with Benny Gantz after splitting the Blue and White party.
The article highlights the discrepancy between popular support and parliamentary power, noting that votes for parties failing to pass the electoral threshold can significantly impact coalition formation. For instance, in 2022, Meretz and Balad together garnered 289,410 votes but did not pass the threshold, while Netanyahu's coalition parties received 2,042,378 votes. Including Meretz and Balad would have given the opposition bloc 2,331,788 votes, more than Netanyahu's bloc. The significant number of wasted votes for parties that don't pass the threshold, 417,400 in 2022 compared to 36,901 in 2020, explains how similar vote percentages can yield different seat allocations.
While Netanyahu often boasts about his personal popularity, the data suggests his strength lies in his ability to assemble a bloc and form governments rather than consistently winning a personal majority. The Likud party itself received 23.41% of the votes in 2022, and the peak for a list headed by Netanyahu was 29.46% in 2020. His personal electoral success was evident in 1996 when he narrowly defeated Shimon Peres for prime minister, but he lost to Ehud Barak in 1999.
Looking ahead to the 26th Knesset elections, Netanyahu's position is described as not optimal. Potential vote wastage among smaller parties and divisions within his traditional bloc, such as United Torah Judaism's reluctance to endorse him due to the conscription issue, present challenges. However, the article concludes that unless opposition parties secure a clear 61-seat majority without Arab parties, Netanyahu's political story is far from over, given his current role as caretaker prime minister and potential legislative efforts to prevent him from running again.
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