Israeli Election Scenarios: Coalition Building Challenges and Repeat Vote Fears

With Israeli elections looming, political analysts are scrutinizing various coalition scenarios, with a repeat vote appearing increasingly likely. Polls suggest neither the right-wing bloc nor the "change bloc" is close to securing the 61 seats needed to form a government. Potential shifts could occur if voter turnout deviates from predictions, if votes for parties failing to cross the electoral threshold are "burned," or if party leaders abandon prior commitments, a scenario not unprecedented in Israeli politics.

A "pure right-wing" government, with or without Avi Winter, is deemed unlikely. While one poll indicated the bloc could reach 61-62 seats, most others place Netanyahu's bloc significantly lower, with one poll showing only 49 seats. The Likud party is reportedly exploring the possibility of defectors, particularly from the Yamina party, to bolster their numbers.

The "change government" scenario, with or without candidates like Gendel and Zelekha, also faces low probability. Polls show this bloc falling short of 61 seats, though one poll indicated a potential 56 seats with these candidates included. High voter turnout could alter the landscape, and Yoav Segalovich of Ra'am is seen as a potential 61st vote if the bloc reaches 60 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's suggestions of Likud defectors have been made in past elections without materializing.

A "unity government" or rotation agreement is considered highly improbable. Leaders of the change bloc have consistently stated they will not form a government with parties that were part of the "October 7 government." Eisenkot explicitly stated on October 21st that he would not join a Netanyahu government, even in a rotation, and would resign within an hour if such a coalition were formed.