Israel Election Scenarios Focus on Knesset Control and Netanyahu's Future
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Israeli political parties are strategizing for the post-election period, with focus on securing Knesset control and potentially preventing Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a government. The Likud is identifying opposition lawmakers for potential recruitment, while the opposition considers using a parliamentary majority to pass disqualifying legislation against Netanyahu. Polls show a tight race, and the success of new right-wing parties could be decisive. Ultimately, political deadlock may lead to new elections or a unity government.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli parties are strategizing for post-election scenarios focused on Knesset control and Netanyahu's future.
- The Likud is vetting opposition candidates for potential recruitment to form a government.
- The opposition may use a parliamentary majority to pass legislation barring indicted individuals from forming a government.
- New right-wing parties could be decisive in the upcoming Knesset elections.
- Political deadlock might lead to new elections or a unity government.
- Avigdor Lieberman opposes minority governments but is open to Likud cooperation without Netanyahu.
As Israel approaches its Knesset elections on October 27, political maneuvering is intensifying around potential post-election scenarios, particularly the possibility of no single bloc securing a majority to form a government. Both the Likud party and opposition factions are exploring strategies to gain legislative control and potentially sideline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israeli assessments suggest the Likud is already identifying opposition Knesset members who could be persuaded to join a Netanyahu-led government. Conversely, opposition circles are considering leveraging a potential parliamentary majority to oust Netanyahu, even if they cannot form a stable government themselves. Current polls indicate a close race between the two blocs, with the Likud's projected seats significantly down from previous elections. New right-wing parties, such as those led by Ofer Vinter, Yoaz Hendel, and Yaron Zelekha, are vying for right-wing votes and their success in crossing the electoral threshold could impact seat distribution.
The Likud's strategy includes vetting opposition candidates, particularly from lists led by Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman, to find those unwilling to support a government reliant on Arab parties. This vetting aims to identify potential defectors to secure the necessary seats for Netanyahu. The Likud also seeks to thwart opposition plans to use a Knesset majority to pass legislation preventing Netanyahu, who faces criminal charges, from forming a government.
Meanwhile, opposition parties are contemplating using any parliamentary majority to seize control of the Knesset, potentially replacing the Speaker and passing legislation that would disqualify individuals facing indictments from forming a government. This could also involve establishing an independent inquiry committee into the failures of October 7, 2023. Such a scenario might allow the opposition, possibly with the support of Arab parties, to remove Netanyahu from power, even without forming a new coalition.
However, these opposition plans face obstacles, including Avigdor Lieberman's refusal to support minority or transitional governments reliant on Arab or Haredi parties, though he has not ruled out cooperation with the Likud without Netanyahu. Other possibilities include internal Likud defections or shifts in Haredi party allegiances, particularly if Netanyahu fails to form a government, as suggested by religious authority Rabbi Dov Lando regarding the Yachad HaTorah party's stance on the conscription law. President Yitzhak Herzog is reportedly pushing for a broad unity government to avoid new elections. If political deadlock persists, another round of elections remains a possibility.
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