Israeli Election Stalemate Continues Two Weeks Before Vote

With less than two weeks until the Israeli elections, the political landscape remains deadlocked, with neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposing camp nearing the 61 seats required to form a government. The anti-Netanyahu bloc faces a surplus of unused seats from Arab parties, which a Channel 13 poll indicated could win 15 seats. Recent polls show a decline in support for the "change bloc," which had previously approached the 61-seat target, now trailing Netanyahu's bloc around 50 seats. This makes even relying on the Abbas-Sagalovitch list, projected to win five seats, impractical for forming a majority. Consequently, a coalition unity government between the main parties in both blocs, excluding the Haredi and Religious Zionist parties, appears more likely.

This shift is attributed to several factors, including right-wing swing lists crossing the electoral threshold and a potential increase in the strength of Arab parties. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, which weeks ago hovered between 57 and 59 seats, had hoped to form a "Zionist government" without relying on Arab votes. The current situation mirrors the political instability between 2019 and 2022, marked by repeated elections and short-lived governments due to the absence of a stable parliamentary majority.

Arab parties are again facing internal dilemmas. While seeking to oust Netanyahu and his far-right allies, they are constrained by the fundamental obstacles of participating in a government involved in conflict with Palestinians and by their own political delegitimization. The experience of Mansour Abbas, who joined the Bennett-Lapid government in exchange for budget concessions while compromising national principles, remains a recent precedent. Despite his current efforts to align with Israeli government demands, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish nation-state and accepting civil service for Arabs, he is reportedly rejected by the "change bloc" leaders who insist on a purely "Zionist" government.

Historically, the 1992 "blocking bloc" supported by the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality and the Arab Democratic Party from outside the coalition, backed the Rabin government to advance the peace process. However, this reliance on Arab votes, particularly after the Shas party's withdrawal, was not well-received in Israel and contributed to the incitement that preceded Rabin's assassination. Today, even an offer from Yosef Jabareen of the Joint List to provide a safety net for a minority government is reportedly ignored by the "change bloc," which seeks to distance itself from any association with Palestinian citizens of Israel. Mansour Abbas has reacted to this competition, viewing the offers as demeaning attempts to gain favor from those who do not want or value them.