Conflicting Polls Show Divergent Election Outcomes Days Before Vote
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
Conflicting Israeli election polls released days before the vote show vastly different outcomes, with some favoring the opposition and others the Likud-led coalition. A News 12 poll projects the opposition bloc winning 55 seats and "Yesher!" leading with 23, while a News 14 poll shows the right-wing bloc with 62 seats and Likud leading with 30. Ofer Vinter's "Amcha Israel" party is shown crossing the electoral threshold in the News 12 poll but falling short in the News 14 poll.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Conflicting Israeli election polls show vastly different outcomes days before the vote.
- News 12 poll projects opposition bloc winning 55 seats, "Yesher!" leading with 23.
- News 14 poll shows right-wing bloc with 62 seats, Likud leading with 30.
- Ofer Vinter's "Amcha Israel" party crosses electoral threshold in one poll.
- Discrepancies in polls create uncertainty and forecast a contentious election day.
With just six days remaining until the elections, Israeli political and media landscapes are experiencing unprecedented turbulence, marked by significant discrepancies in poll results from various television channels. Channels 14 and 15 suggest a victory for the Netanyahu bloc over the change bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. Conversely, channels 11, 12, 13, and 16 present an opposing view, indicating the Likud party is polling around 20 seats, with the Eisenkot-led bloc holding an advantage. These wide variations forecast a highly contentious election day.
A News 12 poll conducted by Midgam Institute, with data collected in collaboration with iPanel, projects the opposition bloc securing 55 seats against the coalition's 51, while Arab parties are estimated to receive 14 seats. In this scenario, the "Yesher!" party leads with 23 seats, followed by the Likud at 19. "Beichad" is third with 15 seats. The Joint List and the Democrats each garner 9 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas are projected to win 8 seats apiece, with United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit receiving 7 seats each. Religious Zionism-Identity is expected to get 6 seats, and Ra'am 5. The surprise in this poll is "Amcha Israel," which crosses the electoral threshold with 4 seats. This achievement comes after a period where Ofer Vinter's party was below the threshold, facing intense political attacks from Netanyahu and coalition parties who labeled him "dangerous" and claimed his candidacy threatened the right-wing bloc's unity. Two lists, Handel-Zalicha (2.8%) and the Haredi Public (0.3%), failed to pass the electoral threshold.
In contrast, a News 14 poll by NEXT DATA, conducted on October 21, 2026, with 1,954 adult participants and analyzed by Shlomo Filber, shows a reversed outcome. This poll indicates the right-wing bloc maintaining stability with 62 seats, compared to the left bloc's 44 seats, and Arab parties at 14. In this projection, the Likud leads with 30 seats, while "Yesher!" polls at 20. Shas and "Beichad" rise to 10 seats each, the Democrats hold 9, and the Joint List and Otzma Yehudit receive 8 seats each. Religious Zionism-Identity and United Torah Judaism are projected to win 7 seats each, Ra'am secures 6, and Yisrael Beiteinu weakens to 5 seats. Lists falling below the electoral threshold include the Economic Reservists (2.2%), Amcha Israel (1.7%), Noam LeYisrael (0.6%), the Haredi Public (0.3%), and AHI (0.2%).
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