Pollster Reveals Mandate Shifts if Parties Fail to Pass Election Threshold
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Channel 13 pollster Shmuel Rosner stated that if parties led by Ofer Vinter and Yohaz Hendel-Yaron Zelekha fail to pass the electoral threshold, the "change bloc" would gain the most from the redistributed mandates. Depending on whether one or both parties miss the threshold, 4 to 8 mandates could be reallocated. Rosner noted these parties are "swing parties" whose final results depend on election day voter psychology.
The story in 4 lines · by baba
- "Change bloc" to gain most if Vinter and Hendel-Zelekha parties miss election threshold.
- Failure of both parties to pass threshold could redistribute 8 mandates.
- Failure of one party could redistribute 4 mandates.
- Rosner cited voter psychology as key for "swing parties" near threshold.
Channel 13 pollster Shmuel Rosner explained on 103fm radio that if parties led by Ofer Vinter and Yohaz Hendel-Yaron Zelekha fail to cross the electoral threshold, it could significantly alter the bloc dynamics in the upcoming elections. Rosner indicated that the "change bloc" would benefit most from a redistribution of these potential mandates.
Rosner detailed two scenarios: if both parties fail to pass the threshold, approximately 8 mandates could be redistributed. If only one party falls short, around 4 mandates would be up for grabs. He emphasized that the "change bloc" stands to gain more than the "coalition bloc" from such a redistribution.
The pollster also touched upon the differing voter bases for Vinter and Hendel-Zelekha, noting that the parties are currently hovering near the electoral threshold. Rosner pointed out that the final outcome for these parties depends heavily on voter behavior on election day itself, describing them as "swing parties" whose results are influenced by psychological factors and last-minute decisions.
Addressing discrepancies in poll results across various media outlets, Rosner asserted that despite apparent differences, the polls collectively present a similar overall picture regarding the political landscape.
