New Poll Shows Dramatic Shift in Israeli Election Mandates
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
A new Channel 13 poll shows Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party leading with 20 mandates, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 18, just weeks before elections. Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party is projected to pass the electoral threshold. Eisenkot also leads Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister. If no bloc wins a majority, over half of respondents prefer repeat elections, while a significant portion would accept a Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party leads Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 20 mandates to 18 in a new poll.
- The "Netanyahu bloc" is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.
- Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party is expected to surpass the electoral threshold.
- Gadi Eisenkot is preferred over Benjamin Netanyahu for prime minister by 46% to 38%.
- If no bloc wins a majority, 52% of respondents favor repeat elections.
- Benny Gantz may decide on his candidacy withdrawal ten days before the election.
A new poll by Channel 13 News indicates a significant shift in the upcoming Israeli election landscape, with the "Netanyahu bloc" failing to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority. The survey shows Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party leading with 20 mandates, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party trails with 18. A joint list of Bennett and Lapid is projected to receive 14 mandates.
Despite facing considerable pressure, Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party is expected to surpass the electoral threshold, garnering 4 mandates. Other parties' projected seat counts include "The Democrats" with 9, the Joint List with 9, Yisrael Beiteinu with 8, Shas with 7, United Torah Judaism with 7, Otzma Yehudit with 7, Religious Zionism with 7, and Ra'am with 6. The poll also shows Hendel-Zelicha with 4 mandates.
In a head-to-head comparison for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu, with 46% preferring Eisenkot and 38% favoring Netanyahu. Voter turnout is expected to be high, with 78% of coalition voters and 82% of opposition voters expressing certainty they will vote. Regarding the desired government composition, 33% favor a broad unity government, 31% prefer a right-wing government, and 23% want a full opposition.
If no bloc achieves a majority, 52% of respondents desire repeat elections, while 32% would prefer a unity government led by Netanyahu or Eisenkot in rotation. The poll also touched on potential actions regarding Iran, with 33% trusting the government to act before the elections, viewing it as necessary, while 47% distrust the government, believing it to be a political maneuver.
Separately, sources within the "Change bloc" claim that Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, has indicated he will make a final decision on whether to run until election day or withdraw about ten days before the vote, by the deadline for printing ballots. Blue and White did not directly confirm this, stating that they intend to form a Zionist government and are not the ones under pressure. This comes amid growing pressure on Gantz to withdraw from the race, as his party has not consistently passed the electoral threshold in recent polls, raising concerns that votes for Blue and White could be lost and harm the bloc's chances of replacing the current government.
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