Israeli Election Poll Shows Sharp Divide on Likelihood of Repeat Elections

A new election poll conducted by Channel 7 reveals significant differences in voter expectations regarding the possibility of repeat elections following the upcoming vote. Only 4% of Likud voters believe another election will be necessary, contrasting sharply with figures ranging from 39% to 70% among supporters of several smaller parties. Overall, 17% of Jewish voters surveyed anticipate a new round of elections. This expectation is relatively consistent across most parties, hovering between 19% and 26%, including parties like Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, Yahad, Religious Zionism-Tehila, Otzma Yehudit, Achva, and United Torah Judaism. However, notable exceptions exist. Supporters of the Likud party show the lowest expectation of repeat elections at 4%, a figure consistent across both genders. Conversely, supporters of smaller parties such as Noam, Am Israel, and HaMilyamnikim-Calcalit exhibit higher expectations, between 39% and 46%. The highest anticipation comes from supporters of Benny Gantz's National Unity party and Motty Lightner's Haredi Public, where 63% to 70% expect repeat elections, indicating a majority within these groups. The poll suggests a strong negative correlation between a party's size and its supporters' expectation of repeat elections, with a coefficient of -0.73. Parties that are smaller and potentially struggle to pass the electoral threshold show a greater likelihood of their supporters anticipating further elections. Researchers propose two potential explanations for this phenomenon. One theory suggests that the expectation of repeat elections influences voting choices, potentially encouraging voters to support smaller parties aligned with their views, aiming to give them visibility and momentum for a subsequent election. Another hypothesis posits that voters dissatisfied with the current political landscape may doubt the ability of parties to form a government, leading them to favor smaller parties as an alternative or a protest vote. These explanations are speculative and were not directly tested in the survey. The "Israel Election Barometer" poll was conducted by the Ra'am-Mascar Institute for Channel 7, surveying 746 respondents from the Jewish sector.