Israeli Intelligence Believes Hamas Rebuilding Capabilities Ahead of Elections

Israeli intelligence agencies estimate that Hamas is intensifying its preparations for a potential resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip, using the current period to rebuild its capabilities and rearm. This assessment is based on Hamas's belief that Israel will not receive U.S. approval for large-scale military operations in Gaza before the upcoming Israeli and American elections. A recent intelligence picture presented to Israeli political leadership indicates Hamas is actively storing and moving weapons in anticipation of political changes after the elections, which could broaden the scope for Israeli military action in the sector. Security officials have informed ministers that Hamas may revert to using civilian infrastructure for its military activities, a tactic previously employed by the group. Israeli security forces have conducted operations in recent weeks targeting individuals they claim were involved in rebuilding Hamas's military capacity and preparing for future attacks. The Israeli military reported striking three weapons depots last month, allegedly containing weapons and anti-tank measures, with Hamas operatives observed transferring arms from them. Security agencies also claim to have targeted individuals financing the rebuilding of Hamas's military infrastructure, including the alleged assassination of Mohammed Abu Alwan in September, who was described as responsible for the political wing's funds and involved in transferring over a billion dollars to military activities during the war.

The stalled disarmament mechanism is linked to these intelligence assessments. Nearly a year after a ceasefire, Israel has not transferred responsibility to an alternative Palestinian administration for managing the Gaza Strip, and forces intended for integration into a new security system are not yet ready. The roadmap requires preconditions for heavy weapons disarmament and the dismantling of manufacturing sites and underground infrastructure, including the entry of the alternative administration and an international stabilization force, neither of which has occurred. This has led to criticism within the Israeli cabinet, with Minister Orit Strock warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a gradual approach to reconstruction without parallel progress in disarmament. She cautioned that a pilot project in Rafah could become a model for the entire Gaza, potentially eroding the principle of linking reconstruction to disarmament.

The Palestinian force designated for the new security system remains far from operational readiness. While approximately 16,500 Palestinians have passed Israeli vetting out of nearly 283,000 applicants for the new police force, Israel has not permitted them to travel to Egypt for training. This delay hinders the formation of a force capable of implementing security arrangements and transferring control to an alternative entity. Questions also arise regarding the recipient and storage of any surrendered weapons, with analysis suggesting a risk of Hamas regaining access to weapons stored within the Gaza Strip.

Israel's ability to expand its operations in Gaza is significantly tied to the U.S. White House's stance. While Israel conducts localized operations, intelligence suggests Hamas believes Washington will not approve broader actions at this time, factoring in the U.S. election timeline and potential shifts in the Trump administration's policy. While there is no declared dispute between Israel and the U.S. on the ultimate goal of disarming Hamas, disagreements persist over the operational latitude Israel will be granted. U.S. envoy Jared Kushner has indicated Washington does not expect Israel to refrain from acting against immediate threats, while Israeli officials seek broader military freedom, including targeting those involved in the October 7th attack. The definition of an "immediate threat" is a point of contention, as rebuilding capabilities may not fall under this category according to U.S. definitions, leaving Israel to determine when such rebuilding constitutes a justifiable military threat and the extent of U.S. approval.

The Trump administration aims for a ceasefire, Hamas disarmament, an alternative administration, an international force, Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction. A resumption of large-scale Israeli warfare could disrupt this plan, while Israeli security agencies argue that Hamas's continued rebuilding efforts undermine the disarmament objective. Earlier Israeli security assessments acknowledged that the situation in Gaza is far from decisive, with Hamas retaining control over areas not occupied by the Israeli military, despite Israeli forces controlling 64% of the Strip, in the absence of a political settlement or a complete disarmament mechanism.