Hamas Preparing for New War, Israeli Intelligence Warns

Israeli intelligence has detected increased preparations by Hamas for a potential resumption of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, according to a report by Maariv. The organization is reportedly using the current ceasefire to stockpile weapons, rebuild military infrastructure, and train its forces for a future conflict. This intelligence has been presented to Israel's political leadership.

Security officials believe Hamas is exploiting the period leading up to elections in Israel and the United States, anticipating that the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) capacity for a large-scale operation in Gaza is currently limited. They assess that Hamas expects the political landscape to shift after the elections, potentially granting Israel more freedom for military action. Consequently, Hamas is focused on restoring its capabilities during this interim period.

Concerns are also high regarding the placement of weapons in civilian areas. IDF and Shin Bet investigations indicate that Hamas is actively repurposing hospitals in Gaza for terrorist activities, with the scale of this practice reportedly increasing. Signs of military infrastructure reconstruction were observed even during recent IDF operations, with militants involved in rebuilding Hamas's capabilities and preparing new attacks being neutralized.

In September, the IDF struck three weapons depots in Gaza containing arms, explosives, and anti-tank munitions, observing Hamas militants arriving to collect the weapons. Financial infrastructure is also being rebuilt, as evidenced by the elimination of Muhammad Abu Alwan, who managed Hamas's political wing finances and was involved in transferring over a billion dollars for military activities during the war.

Meanwhile, the post-war disarmament plan has stalled. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, an alternative Palestinian administration for Gaza has not been established, and its security forces are not ready. The plan's roadmap, which includes dismantling heavy weaponry and infrastructure, is contingent on the formation of this administration and the deployment of stabilization forces, conditions that remain unmet.

Disagreements exist within the Israeli cabinet, with Minister Orit Struk opposing Gaza's gradual reconstruction before Hamas is disarmed, warning Prime Minister Netanyahu that it could lead to a permanent model of rebuilding while the organization retains its military potential. Netanyahu stated he would examine the issue. The training of Palestinian security forces also faces hurdles, with Israel yet to permit candidates to travel to Egypt for training. A critical unresolved issue is the secure storage of surrendered Hamas weapons to prevent their eventual recovery by the organization.

Israel's operational freedom is significantly influenced by the U.S. stance. Intelligence suggests Hamas believes a large-scale IDF operation is unlikely without Washington's backing. While both nations publicly agree on Hamas's disarmament, disagreements persist over the scope of IDF actions before the disarmament mechanism is fully operational. U.S. officials, including Jared Kushner, have indicated that Israel is not required to forgo strikes on immediate threats, while some international bodies advocate for limiting operations to such cases. Netanyahu, however, seeks broader operational latitude, creating a challenge as Hamas rebuilds its military potential, which may not always fit a narrow definition of an immediate threat.