Israel Concerned as Hamas Rebuilds Capabilities Amidst Election Uncertainty

Israeli intelligence indicates that Hamas is actively rearming and rebuilding its capabilities, exploiting the current period to stockpile weapons and restore its military strength. Security officials are concerned that the organization is leveraging the election cycles in Israel and the United States to consolidate power, believing that Israel's operational freedom is limited until after the elections. Hamas is reportedly transferring weapons to civilian areas, including hospitals and schools, as part of its efforts to enhance its military infrastructure.

Recent Israeli military actions have targeted Hamas weapons depots, with soldiers identifying Hamas operatives retrieving arms. The security establishment has also reported strikes against individuals involved in financing the rehabilitation of military infrastructure and the organization's power buildup. In September, the IDF and Shin Bet announced the elimination of Muhammad Abu Alwan, who was responsible for the finances of Hamas's political wing and was among 16 economic operatives allegedly involved in transferring over a billion dollars to the organization's military activities during the war. Abu Alwan was also reportedly involved in rebuilding Hamas's capabilities.

The mechanism intended to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities is not yet fully operational. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, the alternative Palestinian government meant to assume responsibility in the Gaza Strip has not been established, and the forces designated for the new security mechanism are not yet ready. This interim period has allowed Hamas to continue rebuilding its strength, with the disarmament process progressing slowly.

During a cabinet meeting, Minister Orit Struk warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against what she termed a "salami tactic," referring to gradual progress in rebuilding Gaza while Hamas's disarmament remains incomplete. Struk argued that a pilot program, initially presented as a limited initiative, is becoming a model for ongoing operations, potentially undermining the principle that reconstruction should not advance without progress in disarming Hamas. Netanyahu stated he would address the issue.

Israel's operational freedom in Gaza is also influenced by the White House's stance. While Israel conducts targeted operations, intelligence suggests Hamas believes a broad campaign is unlikely without American approval. Hamas is factoring in the US election calendar and potential shifts in policy under a future Trump administration. While the US and Israel agree on the ultimate goal of disarming Hamas, disagreements exist regarding Israel's operational space to counter Hamas's rearmament during the interim period. US officials have indicated they do not expect Israel to refrain from acting against immediate threats, but have also urged limiting strikes to such threats. Israel seeks to maintain broader operational latitude, particularly against Hamas operatives involved in the October 7th attacks, which may not always be classified as an "immediate threat."