Israel Concerned Hamas Rebuilding Military Capabilities Amidst Election Uncertainty

Israeli intelligence indicates that Hamas is actively rearming and rebuilding its military capabilities in Gaza, exploiting the current period to stockpile weapons and restore its strength. Security officials are concerned that the organization is using the upcoming election cycles in Israel and the United States as a window of opportunity, believing that Israel's operational freedom is limited until the elections conclude. Hamas reportedly estimates that Israel will not launch a broad campaign in Gaza during this interim period and is therefore leveraging the time to consolidate power and prepare for potential shifts in political conditions post-election.

Recent Israeli military actions have targeted Hamas weapons depots, with the IDF reporting that Hamas operatives were seen retrieving weapons from these sites. The security establishment has also reported thwarting efforts to finance the rehabilitation of Hamas's military infrastructure and bolster its forces. In September, the IDF and Shin Bet announced the elimination of Muhammad Abu Alwan, who was responsible for the financial assets of Hamas's political wing and was identified as one of 16 operatives allegedly involved in transferring over a billion dollars to fund the organization's military activities. Abu Alwan was also reportedly involved in rebuilding Hamas's capabilities.

The mechanism intended to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities is not yet fully operational. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, the alternative Palestinian government meant to assume responsibility in Gaza has not been established, and the forces designated for a new security mechanism are not fully prepared. This slow progress in the disarmament process allows Hamas to continue its rehabilitation efforts.

Minister Orit Strock voiced concerns to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a "salami tactic," where Gaza's rehabilitation progresses incrementally while Hamas's disarmament remains incomplete. Strock warned that a pilot program, initially presented as a limited initiative, is becoming a model for ongoing operations, potentially undermining the principle that rehabilitation should not advance without corresponding progress in disarming Hamas. Netanyahu stated he would address the issue.

Israel's operational latitude in Gaza is also influenced by the U.S. stance. While Israel conducts targeted operations, intelligence suggests Hamas believes a large-scale conflict is unlikely without American approval. Hamas is factoring the U.S. election schedule into its calculations, considering how a potential change in U.S. administration might affect policy towards broader Israeli military action. While both Israel and the U.S. agree on the ultimate goal of disarming Hamas, disagreements persist regarding the operational space Israel has while the disarmament mechanism is incomplete and Hamas continues to rearm. U.S. envoy Jared Kushner has indicated that the U.S. does not expect Israel to refrain from acting against immediate threats, but Israeli officials seek broader operational freedom, particularly against those involved in the October 7th attacks. The core issue for Israel is determining when Hamas's ongoing rearmament constitutes an immediate threat justifying action and what level of U.S. support can be expected in such a scenario.